[{"id":"fflhhk865ud","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2","label":"traders"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"ROUND 3 HAS BEGUN!!!","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round-0sZn5unZc8?r=YmVucw","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round-0sZn5unZc8?r=YmVucw","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768257157543,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":2},{"id":"vv3sosvcxz","isApi":false,"userId":"tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"YAY!","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"jatloe","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768250958388,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"jatloe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJT1Drz0gmtW-QEia9EtqEQs8qwbfdh06OdEBi_Q8okCQ=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":1,"commentorPositionShares":3677.7351711777706,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"vbqwnczm8r","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"exhwqdxc00v","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" I lost a lot of mana but I’m very happy you solved it—and to have been on the right track!","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768215721233,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"exhwqdxc00v","commentorPositionProb":1,"commentorPositionShares":2022.5554648255568,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"2nz5muw68un","isApi":false,"userId":"lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"o3atybpahnp","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEOgsQqQClh.png?alt=media&token=f1bd7c67-c021-4ddd-bb4a-9f701bae1ea1","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"found that","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"1$ bets","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768197000663,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"1bets","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJkNCtIZBrKGNPgZq_yWAuDgpImlchlDaSMoMHwRmDl_Zz6b2nyEw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"vvpjx4l5x1","commentorPositionProb":1,"commentorPositionShares":482.8913961308871,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"o3atybpahnp","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"vvpjx4l5x1","label":"1bets"}},{"text":" A King of Isin: ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipit-Enlil","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipit-Enlil","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768196936576,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"vvpjx4l5x1","commentorPositionProb":1,"commentorPositionShares":9130.792456947096,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"vvpjx4l5x1","isApi":false,"userId":"lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"what is LIPITENLIL?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"1$ bets","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768196689792,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"1bets","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJkNCtIZBrKGNPgZq_yWAuDgpImlchlDaSMoMHwRmDl_Zz6b2nyEw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":1,"commentorPositionShares":482.8913961308871,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"2w7vx4034za","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Everyone can pre-trade on whether you think it'll be hard or easy, here!","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"contract-mention","attrs":{"id":"g9yy92pNRh","label":"/Eliza/if-ben-makes-a-third-puzzle-before"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768186324003,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"oao6osl136","commentorPositionProb":1,"commentorPositionShares":9130.792456947096,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"ed6ahqfejf7","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"sjxhz685d9n","label":"bens"}},{"text":" Alright so you snuck in Lipid and Lil. That's why I was picking LIPIT-ENLIL out of all the potential options first.  Then I was editing it because I saw Cod was in there which was very close to Code of Lipit-Ishtar as well.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1768185808351,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768185781462,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"sjxhz685d9n","commentorPositionProb":0.7401547453128096,"commentorPositionShares":9130.792456947096,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"exhwqdxc00v","betId":"8LUhAhROSAc9","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" Congrats to everyone who got Yes shares at 49% from me, I was trying to re-up my Yes order at 49% and accidentally placed a No order instead.","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","userName":"Eliza","betAmount":2500,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768185674174,"betLimitProb":0.49,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","betOrderAmount":2500,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":5},{"id":"sjxhz685d9n","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Congratulations to ","type":"text"},{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" !!","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"The correct answer was indeed LIPITENLIL","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"This was the full visual hint text (encoded with i/o words for binary with a bunch of red herrings):","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"SKLISIN1870MC5YRSONOFBURSUEN","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Expected that the puzzle would be almost impossible if SKLISIN wasn't completed, should be pretty possible if you managed to get through SKLISIN1870MC, but I guess all it took was SKLISIN18 to get the general idea!  Next month will be... ummm... harder haha.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768185557813,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":10},{"id":"7asaklogf3b","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Well I was guessing that in 3 hours anyway if no one else had.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768185442433,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"b8dzx0ddxil","commentorPositionProb":0.7401547453128096,"commentorPositionShares":9130.792456947096,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"ep38rcp2h49","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"u3mj917v5n","label":"bens"}},{"text":" when I resolved the puzzle, it showed up as \"LIPITENLIL\" on my screen.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768185404587,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"b8dzx0ddxil","likes":0},{"id":"3s758d5hkpb","betId":"Va2hLb3PazkW","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"u3mj917v5n","label":"bens"}},{"text":" LMAO","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","userName":"Eliza","betAmount":0,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768185380720,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"b8dzx0ddxil","commentorPositionProb":0.7401547453128096,"commentorPositionShares":9130.792456947096,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"u3mj917v5n","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"a6t7222x2s6","label":"bens"}},{"text":" still counts, I guess.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768185376671,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"b8dzx0ddxil","likes":0},{"id":"a6t7222x2s6","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"b8dzx0ddxil","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" wait lol you got the answer correct when I looked, but you edited it hahaha... BAD!","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768185371387,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"b8dzx0ddxil","likes":0},{"id":"b8dzx0ddxil","betId":"OCsslQ6y8OIu","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2026-01-11: LIPITENLIL","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","userName":"Eliza","betAmount":3000,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1768185457273,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768184624819,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","betOrderAmount":3000,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.7401547453128096,"commentorPositionShares":9076.364634363605,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"wb001jrw0ah","isApi":false,"userId":"j3qXHWAZS4b37tlcY3u22l1D1qF3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/1/26 URNINURTA","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jack","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768184427079,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Jack1","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJack1%2F69Ouyz6NyO.jpeg?alt=media&token=61dde0cb-6297-4c16-8acd-fd11ef57a7f8","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.5259972692627923,"commentorPositionShares":2423.8161792877345,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"oao6osl136","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Almost done constructing the Round 3 puzzle.  You'll probably be able to tell as soon as the first day's hint hits, but... it's ummm, gonna be fun.  Hope y'all are excited for a challenge.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768183420375,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":2},{"id":"1gfuki3i324","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1/11:","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Blogroll Sendai Yore Jive Moorhen Hostess Millipede Lima Whitehall Fort Longan Pharaoh Croup Solar Dzongkha Ulyanovsk Bitter Kips Semibreve Lost","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768183310534,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":1},{"id":"v1jo9ul452e","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"7h4fgif6mf3","label":"Jack1"}},{"text":" I was definitely reading it wrong. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768180839071,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ky5ynyk791s","commentorPositionProb":0.4949794121705162,"commentorPositionShares":4433.742260667825,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"7h4fgif6mf3","isApi":false,"userId":"j3qXHWAZS4b37tlcY3u22l1D1qF3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"7m2pro55n6x","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ishbi-Erra","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ishbi-Erra","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I is 1st and 5th letter","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jack","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768180077547,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Jack1","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJack1%2F69Ouyz6NyO.jpeg?alt=media&token=61dde0cb-6297-4c16-8acd-fd11ef57a7f8","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ky5ynyk791s","commentorPositionProb":0.4949794121705162,"commentorPositionShares":1934.1744798063753,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"7m2pro55n6x","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"iigjhf1euq","label":"Jack1"}},{"text":" you have ISHBIERRA, there should be another I in there. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768179600226,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ky5ynyk791s","commentorPositionProb":0.4949794121705162,"commentorPositionShares":4433.742260667825,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"iigjhf1euq","isApi":false,"userId":"j3qXHWAZS4b37tlcY3u22l1D1qF3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"9bktdwccvid","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" I think that’s how I did","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jack","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768179409331,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Jack1","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJack1%2F69Ouyz6NyO.jpeg?alt=media&token=61dde0cb-6297-4c16-8acd-fd11ef57a7f8","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ky5ynyk791s","commentorPositionProb":0.4949794121705162,"commentorPositionShares":1934.1744798063753,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"9bktdwccvid","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"ky5ynyk791s","label":"Jack1"}},{"text":" I think it might be spelled ISHBIERRA, from the sources I was looking at.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768179174769,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","likes":1},{"id":"n1cake5e98","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"9coygoap1bc","label":"DannyqnOht"}},{"text":" At the time I wrote that, the market was at like 57% or something and there were multiple thousands of limit order walls before 49%.  I think I at least convinced some people that we were below par.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768105933243,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.4949517964768396,"commentorPositionShares":323.6650553222467,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"9coygoap1bc","isApi":false,"userId":"mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"jl7wz0611b","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" I don't think this is actually overconfidence.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"The market solved the last one in a way that seemed CRAZY quick to me (way before I thought there was enough info) so I bet it doesn't need that much info this time either. ","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"I still maintain that the market should hover around 50% until resolution though. The incentives for the masses who aren't participating just line up that way. And cooperating publicly is self-defeating, if we cooperate the masses will think we're cooperating and bet yes and make it less likely we'll get enough hints.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"I'm ","type":"text"},{"text":"still","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-approach-to-bens#ewoqzjxv5ua","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" cooperating though :P Sue me. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Danny","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768104562814,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"DannyqnOht","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ-bSnM3tUxKVZgjC1K_kilFv0KxhVk6-yPALgGcdlkoTsHRg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"np7afqy4z6k","commentorPositionProb":0.49364834088753556,"commentorPositionShares":106.64184672423652,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"ikq3ige94za","isApi":false,"userId":"lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"yi2zs22thtr","label":"Jack1"}},{"text":" ate you from New Zealand?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In Maori new zealand is Whenua Kākāriki Hou.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In English Aotearoa → Land of the Long White Cloud. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"These are different countries,  occupying the same soil ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"1$ bets","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768101364520,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"1bets","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJkNCtIZBrKGNPgZq_yWAuDgpImlchlDaSMoMHwRmDl_Zz6b2nyEw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","userName":"Eliza","betAmount":81.67773374132058,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767932520380,"betLimitProb":0.52,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","betOrderAmount":750,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"adu8e31wtb","commentorPositionProb":0.5219228204089958,"commentorPositionShares":4564.455069224885,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"j17xgibfrs","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"8m32qreyhf9","label":"NivlacM"}},{"text":" how much? I'll buy all of it. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767932457345,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"adu8e31wtb","commentorPositionProb":0.494692129003564,"commentorPositionShares":4962.5197801374115,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"8m32qreyhf9","isApi":false,"userId":"M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"4x0dy5nu7nq","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" for now! Until you switch to YES and reveal the answer! (Also please sell your no shares I really want to unload my YES)","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"NivlacM","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767932361837,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"NivlacM","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNivlacM%2FE8dznRLZ2u.png?alt=media&token=5a989cb2-1fdd-4248-ae84-41405a80ba40","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"adu8e31wtb","commentorPositionProb":0.494692129003564,"commentorPositionShares":3115.871733054042,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"4x0dy5nu7nq","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"adu8e31wtb","label":"NivlacM"}},{"text":" I spent 2500 mana on No shares. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767932297816,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"adu8e31wtb","commentorPositionProb":0.494692129003564,"commentorPositionShares":4962.5197801374115,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"adu8e31wtb","isApi":false,"userId":"M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" is trying to get you all to vote no because she has already figured out threte puzzle and wants to profit. Vote yes vote yes! (I need to offload some yes)","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"NivlacM","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767931198278,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"NivlacM","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNivlacM%2FE8dznRLZ2u.png?alt=media&token=5a989cb2-1fdd-4248-ae84-41405a80ba40","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"np7afqy4z6k","commentorPositionProb":0.49002658224187645,"commentorPositionShares":106.64184672423652,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"np7afqy4z6k","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1/8","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Pica Aotearoa Poggers Fist Italica Sphinx Bronte Oolong Douala Kiribati Popcorn Grout Sumo Schooner Xhosa Nob Leviticus Griffith Scrotum Cocoa","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767926744724,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":1},{"id":"udxbaqhz9eg","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"svu0tfxa4v","label":"robm"}},{"text":" there’s already a pinned comment for excess guesses; people are welcome to make suggestions. I clarified the pinned comment here.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767921455154,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"jl7wz0611b","commentorPositionProb":0.5027948781676186,"commentorPositionShares":1906.2809480730136,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"svu0tfxa4v","isApi":false,"userId":"qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"mmii2ah8mbh","label":"MachiNi"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Add \"discussion:\" or something that makes it clear the right approach market is where the collaboration discussion is happening.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Put the latest \"SK..\" text updated in there, or any other hints we basically agree on.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Maybe a shortlist of excess guesses that would make sense for someone without more research time.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"robm","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767918386328,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"robm","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Frobm%2FJtQCKjm_FK.jpg?alt=media&token=bab8978e-9dbb-4850-bc2d-4d0e2a793adf","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"jl7wz0611b","commentorPositionProb":0.5000000000000001,"commentorPositionShares":1034.654617911133,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"1x7twmcmuho","isApi":false,"userId":"edtZHUmcqBh3z0pvBSf8Yvps3103","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"mmii2ah8mbh","label":"MachiNi"}},{"text":" A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"marvingardens","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767916968675,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767916953851,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"marvingardens","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJexe-lpaJNTE4r6NYg9s5xatmqx0FLJJJlvHAqO4_jQRKJKWMm=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"jl7wz0611b","commentorPositionProb":0.4900135365028501,"commentorPositionShares":280.2675873294638,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"mmii2ah8mbh","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"6pw1nqkvt0b","label":"marvingardens"}},{"text":" what should I add to the pinned comment? The guesses?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767915839240,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767915824511,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"jl7wz0611b","commentorPositionProb":0.49001353650285,"commentorPositionShares":1906.2809480730136,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"6pw1nqkvt0b","isApi":false,"userId":"edtZHUmcqBh3z0pvBSf8Yvps3103","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"jzx0rxedw5a","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" If Machini edits it into their pinned comment, that'll be as maximally linked as the spaces can be. I don't think clicking into it is a big ask, especially compared to the current situation.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"marvingardens","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767915642947,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"marvingardens","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJexe-lpaJNTE4r6NYg9s5xatmqx0FLJJJlvHAqO4_jQRKJKWMm=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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No one is going to click into any side space regularly.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767915129981,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"jl7wz0611b","commentorPositionProb":0.5027816572398943,"commentorPositionShares":2949.3853708119477,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"163chedg011","isApi":false,"userId":"edtZHUmcqBh3z0pvBSf8Yvps3103","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"jl7wz0611b","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" I would recommend curating a space specifically for onramping and collaboration. 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It's possible that the current break point should be 49/50 (or even 39/40), but I tend to underestimate how good people are at solving puzzle so I'm waiting a few day","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"archvenison","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767296122778,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"archvenison","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0NY6clika_1PCKGW590KsS9pTT4dyXTM2h1_Cb=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5500000000000002,"commentorPositionShares":904.0592897198758,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"wnhen8s2xyf","betId":"P8AQOQutg5sQ","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"jwgqyfhoo7h","label":"NzJack0n"}},{"text":" I have a lot of No shares right now.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I was willing to buy enough No shares to put it to 49% but there is a lot of Yes pressure down there so I may as well back my investment.","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","userName":"Eliza","betAmount":50,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767296102583,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767296077713,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","betOrderAmount":50,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"2xxloapkt6f","commentorPositionProb":0.5500000000000002,"commentorPositionShares":1027.1993201273567,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"jwgqyfhoo7h","isApi":false,"userId":"j3qXHWAZS4b37tlcY3u22l1D1qF3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"rul2o1woyf8","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" why are you trying to keep it over 59?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jack","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767296060121,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Jack1","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJack1%2F69Ouyz6NyO.jpeg?alt=media&token=61dde0cb-6297-4c16-8acd-fd11ef57a7f8","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"2xxloapkt6f","commentorPositionProb":0.5970605601964633,"commentorPositionShares":123.71176754383669,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"m2bw9660dpe","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"jofhiiow7zn","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" After today's hint if we get just 10 hints, then we'll almost surely know the 4th letter and there are (probably) only a couple dozen choices for the 5th letter, so we'll be able to consider the puzzle from a state roughly 50 hints ahead.  Maybe once people notice that they can't foresee any solution coming within the next 50 hints, they'll start betting differently. But by the time we get to the start of the 6th letter on 7 January and we're no closer to solving anything and the letters don't make any sense, the price will probably finally dip.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767296006191,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5924200982939413,"commentorPositionShares":1111.2690655878646,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"jofhiiow7zn","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"ya34sc50sn","label":"MachiNi"}},{"text":" Yeah, I would feel a little differently if our curated guess list was getting more traction.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"There are a lot of Yes holders not doing anything except freeloading.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767295619463,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767295522452,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5851763229817278,"commentorPositionShares":1364.5448025029932,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"ya34sc50sn","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"pxli85cqq5j","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767295473894,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767295446386,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5987855742937418,"commentorPositionShares":795.3622459816269,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"pxli85cqq5j","betId":"hOZQ5CLSNqnC","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"pzr8q4u2p1","label":"MachiNi"}},{"text":" If everyone wants to give up I'm okay with not solving it I guess. It seems like there is no will to unlock hints and I can't convince anyone that we are way, way, way behind par already.","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","userName":"Eliza","betAmount":150,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767295335862,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","betOrderAmount":150,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5987855742937418,"commentorPositionShares":1364.5448025029932,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"pzr8q4u2p1","betId":"t5AddzzIQhZl","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"drqd8endfyp","label":"archvenison"}},{"text":" I understand that but I think ","type":"text"},{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point ","type":"text"},{"text":"if we want to solve it. ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","userName":"MachiNi","betAmount":50,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767295315462,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767295281546,"betLimitProb":0.59,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","betOrderAmount":50,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5987855742937418,"commentorPositionShares":795.3622459816269,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"drqd8endfyp","isApi":false,"userId":"V9SoL43RsoaSsW3JRwFLxXwqX0F2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"hbslid73z7u","label":"MachiNi"}},{"text":" I mean, that's why it's an interesting market. Betting no helps it resolve yes and vice versa","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"archvenison","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767295160388,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"archvenison","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0NY6clika_1PCKGW590KsS9pTT4dyXTM2h1_Cb=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5899999999999999,"commentorPositionShares":904.0592897198758,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"hbslid73z7u","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"h4ionngqyd5","label":"archvenison"}},{"text":" I want the puzzle solved. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767295048388,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5399999999999998,"commentorPositionShares":917.3667496052035,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"m7e69kti1jj","isApi":false,"userId":"zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"03asdtv6t03w","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" I don't, I've been following several discussion markets and bought YES based on that. I think Manifold has higher than 50% odds, but I've also set a NO order.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ten Shino🆗","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767294923274,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"TenShino","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTenShino%2F8hSLnquSOC.jpg?alt=media&token=e101cdb5-262f-4569-be19-f18117e25851","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"03asdtv6t03w","commentorPositionProb":0.5915592542549846,"commentorPositionShares":2126.040300228466,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"h4ionngqyd5","isApi":false,"userId":"V9SoL43RsoaSsW3JRwFLxXwqX0F2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"ufm60xeubyk","label":"MachiNi"}},{"text":" I think that if we’re getting 10 hints per day the correct probability is <60, but if we’re getting 15 hints per day it’s >59. For the last few days I’ve (almost) always held net No, so I want the probability at 60. If you bet enough no to get my net position to yes, I’ll start wanting it to be 59","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"archvenison","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767294913251,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"archvenison","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0NY6clika_1PCKGW590KsS9pTT4dyXTM2h1_Cb=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ufm60xeubyk","commentorPositionProb":0.5915592542549846,"commentorPositionShares":904.0592897198758,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"03asdtv6t03w","betId":"tPScEl9S9SEh","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2","label":"TenShino"}},{"text":" Do you know something no one else does?","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2","userName":"Eliza","betAmount":215.5766152167504,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767294464500,"betLimitProb":0.54,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","betOrderAmount":555,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":0},{"id":"ufm60xeubyk","betId":"C0StqRyZlAlI","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"V9SoL43RsoaSsW3JRwFLxXwqX0F2","label":"archvenison"}},{"text":" you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"V9SoL43RsoaSsW3JRwFLxXwqX0F2","userName":"MachiNi","betAmount":250,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767293944451,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","betOrderAmount":250,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":1},{"id":"09evo3hqt2m","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1-1-26: TRANSLATION","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767271713431,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.594927148201302,"commentorPositionShares":1432.1516133882465,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"cvfn4nyg0at","isApi":false,"userId":"Ddm060TkMrbUqyi4jfMQCoOZMdA3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"First guess of 2026: SKLISULE","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"121 🫘 roku nana 𝛊","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767267136106,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"121","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F121%2FLgnq86zRNg.png?alt=media&token=54be0a38-9af4-474a-b9b5-ba7e5db4a11f","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.594927148201302,"commentorPositionShares":151.39581179442985,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"rul2o1woyf8","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"exphsn421fo","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" Looks like we got it below 60, can we get to 49?","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Based on my calculations if we hold it in the 50-59 for the remainder of the term of 17 hint periods, that would equate to 255 more hints for a grand total of 345 hints. If the current pattern holds that would be enough for 11.5 letters which would probably let us read 12 letters.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"The main issue here is even if we get 12 letters and figure out what it is, there's a chance the special sauce needed to solve the puzzle is part of the hint text and we might still need a certain amount of hints to be able to do it.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"If we get 12 letters, what percentage chance do you think we have to solve the puzzle? I feel like even then it's still close to 50/50. Not 90%.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767253254145,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767252369914,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"2xxloapkt6f","commentorPositionProb":0.5893199671144792,"commentorPositionShares":599.950510841346,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"exphsn421fo","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"2xxloapkt6f","label":"yeeta"}},{"text":" I've been saying this but no one believes me.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"We have 17 hint periods left, and the last one being on the final day means we could have as little as a few minutes between the last hint and the resolution.  So really it's more like 16 hint periods.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"If we keep averaging 10 hints per period, that's 160 more hints or just barely enough for 5 letters.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"If the next 5 letters continue to spell out something we've already guessed, then what do we do!?!? SKL....ODOWS","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767247092821,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767246969206,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"2xxloapkt6f","commentorPositionProb":0.6012563245631195,"commentorPositionShares":1722.1225168988349,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"8zw98bnomq","isApi":false,"userId":"ydIvcWNqwrMyJQAeJoysqiUZWsU2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"also, Happy New Year!! 🥳","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"yeeta","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767246282753,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"yeeta","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fyeeta%2F0ZLhyR2q0R.jpeg?alt=media&token=346bb1ee-b68b-4e1e-8621-6f2622b4eac2","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"2xxloapkt6f","commentorPositionProb":0.6012563245631195,"commentorPositionShares":41.73901968316636,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"2xxloapkt6f","isApi":false,"userId":"ydIvcWNqwrMyJQAeJoysqiUZWsU2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Y’all .. we need 30 hints to get one letter. We should be shooting for 20% every day until we at least know what it might spell, considering we don’t even know if it’s the answer or just another clue. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FLQS6l28nPI.jpeg?alt=media&token=18ffce84-837e-4a81-96cc-828a85f2b080","title":null}}]},"userName":"yeeta","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767246196912,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"yeeta","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fyeeta%2F0ZLhyR2q0R.jpeg?alt=media&token=346bb1ee-b68b-4e1e-8621-6f2622b4eac2","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6012563245631195,"commentorPositionShares":41.73901968316636,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"jgpeb16z2em","isApi":false,"userId":"VmkjWKX3YVQeBNT03KdC4KON1o92","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12-31-25: SKLODOWSKACURIE","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Q Breezy","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767234352209,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"QBreezy","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4WKCQJD3UGMu5vd-Mrpotn0pOfRMBafA01iB3pLA=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6071195716048519,"commentorPositionShares":2872.339177065423,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"sun347bm4u","isApi":false,"userId":"ydIvcWNqwrMyJQAeJoysqiUZWsU2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/31/25: YOLKS ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"yeeta","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767231741063,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"yeeta","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fyeeta%2F0ZLhyR2q0R.jpeg?alt=media&token=346bb1ee-b68b-4e1e-8621-6f2622b4eac2","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6071195716048519,"commentorPositionShares":41.73901968316636,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"d5drvze2ykt","betId":"0SEcNNy8hU0h","isApi":false,"userId":"Ld0xghdzCQO9nzYekw7IYbCln2x1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"wg2i4gob5cp","label":"bens"}},{"text":" Did I see Somerton","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"Ld0xghdzCQO9nzYekw7IYbCln2x1","userName":"Nayuta Ito","betAmount":5,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767227034762,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"NayutaIto","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJyZh-Kz7Y8Rf9Btvxp3smqbGla1FRT_6Do8fM5Vwv1RwNdaEv-=s96-c","betOrderAmount":5,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"wg2i4gob5cp","commentorPositionProb":0.5950400901776737,"commentorPositionShares":99.5000224366288,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"yhgrtpffljf","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"u7k8yqzk94m","label":"NayutaIto"}},{"text":" The first letters of hints remain exceptionally weird with so many M, T, and G and barely any E, W, A, etc.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Similarly the overall letter distribution is weird.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767226555845,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"u7k8yqzk94m","commentorPositionProb":0.5945761552045552,"commentorPositionShares":1805.8541752467972,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"13iy93mfvc1","isApi":false,"userId":"Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/31 Sklyarov","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"nikki","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767226544489,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"nikki","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGerardDimon%2FGBapwren82.png?alt=media&token=e135f197-71f2-49af-83b3-20f4f646b970","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.5945761552045552,"commentorPositionShares":183.47127005335093,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"oykk9i5t95","isApi":false,"userId":"j3qXHWAZS4b37tlcY3u22l1D1qF3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1/1/26 QUEUE","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jack","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767223468266,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Jack1","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJack1%2F69Ouyz6NyO.jpeg?alt=media&token=61dde0cb-6297-4c16-8acd-fd11ef57a7f8","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6246243764724853,"commentorPositionShares":-1e-14,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"57uu8xu9ptd","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2025-12-31: MONEYTALKS","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767223333777,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6246243764724853,"commentorPositionShares":1805.8541752467972,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"dmp1d04ozzd","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12-31-2025: TALKS","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767221934225,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6246243764724853,"commentorPositionShares":584.6939862696022,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"k8t8ck9kn6d","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"zf1svoc1uh","label":"MachiNi"}},{"text":" I've never heard of it, tell me more.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767218461648,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"wg2i4gob5cp","commentorPositionProb":0.6246243764724853,"commentorPositionShares":1805.8541752467972,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"zf1svoc1uh","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"wg2i4gob5cp","label":"bens"}},{"text":" Somerton kill me now","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767218383579,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"wg2i4gob5cp","commentorPositionProb":0.6246243764724853,"commentorPositionShares":584.6939862696022,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"a0zb2wb19y8","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"wg2i4gob5cp","label":"bens"}},{"text":" Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not going to fall for that. The extra liquidity in the market is doing a good job of keeping random 25 mana buys from accidentally going over the line.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767218069229,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"wg2i4gob5cp","commentorPositionProb":0.6246243764724853,"commentorPositionShares":1805.8541752467972,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"2pwbjt4mi2s","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"wg2i4gob5cp","label":"bens"}},{"text":" y'all are getting unlucky with my random checks, it appears.  Limit orders are at 59% but it's trading at/above 60","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767218011308,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"wg2i4gob5cp","likes":0},{"id":"99fex9xkla5","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"r5wtryynesf","label":"nikki"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" Eliza is correct.  I was bedridden with my phone in the evening and getting up to get my computer from the other side of my home was not in the cards.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767217970409,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"eqj3uj7r5ke","likes":0},{"id":"wg2i4gob5cp","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/30:","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Ich Ordos Lock Steno Theology Timpani Pro Bulldozer Aconcagua Move","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/31:","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Vista Niue Pyxides Levine Mir Gose Robber Tron Godmother Somerton","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767217909881,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":2},{"id":"7r6wkp6akhh","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"1euxzrucf8dj","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints to narrow it down. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767188600895,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"vwdg10iu3dr","commentorPositionProb":0.609302281806737,"commentorPositionShares":2175.991488488381,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"2yympqefzdq","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"eqj3uj7r5ke","label":"bens"}},{"text":" dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767183411030,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767183383762,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"eqj3uj7r5ke","commentorPositionProb":0.609302281806737,"commentorPositionShares":2175.991488488381,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"4f85uf2r9mt","isApi":false,"userId":"IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"eqj3uj7r5ke","label":"bens"}},{"text":" not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the annuation. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jussi-Ville Heiskanen","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767171951243,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"JussiVilleHeiskanen","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJussiVilleHeiskanen%2FsPQsnc6QyE.jpg?alt=media&token=2f9e1916-2590-4af4-a5e0-06ef2345e4f7","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"eqj3uj7r5ke","likes":0},{"id":"w53rjmnynt","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"24y6bepb62r","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" But I have definitely tried to test if we can influence hint generation by writing various things in the comment section. So far the jury's still out but I'm leaning toward Yes.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767166910800,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"eqj3uj7r5ke","commentorPositionProb":0.6008088580825292,"commentorPositionShares":6300.307969845835,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"24y6bepb62r","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"r5wtryynesf","label":"nikki"}},{"text":" I had the same thought and nearly made a similar comment, but I also noticed he didn't even heart recent guesses so it might be more like \"This post is literally the most effort I can do, I'm doing this on my mobile device while barely alive and I'm not at my desk where I have all the data\".","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767166876644,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"eqj3uj7r5ke","commentorPositionProb":0.6008088580825292,"commentorPositionShares":6300.307969845835,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"r5wtryynesf","isApi":false,"userId":"Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"eqj3uj7r5ke","label":"bens"}},{"text":" That's a big hint, he hasn't made all of it!","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"nikki","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767166132862,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"nikki","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGerardDimon%2FGBapwren82.png?alt=media&token=e135f197-71f2-49af-83b3-20f4f646b970","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"eqj3uj7r5ke","commentorPositionProb":0.6008088580825292,"commentorPositionShares":183.47127005335093,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"4ootnybgdx","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2025-12-30: BOLSHEVIKS","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767165054576,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6147034476067299,"commentorPositionShares":6300.307969845835,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"2prajpntef4","isApi":false,"userId":"Iu2wB6W0h1VCXCXLhrktJ7ZkKxk1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12-30: SKLAYRE","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"phenomist","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767164267992,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"phenomist","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLHdBzHSDMG-RADrKIBUmK68PWN2q6mt9eqAqAHCbo_EZw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6147034476067299,"commentorPositionShares":2250.5374983126567,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"17xz951adgr","betId":"uQCPAcOQdcSq","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"x7hcf6s7h1","label":"MRME"}},{"text":" I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you change your mind about the likelihood of solving the puzzle with 10 hints per day.","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","userName":"Eliza","betAmount":0,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767157992081,"betLimitProb":0.59,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","betOrderAmount":2608.39,"contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"vwdg10iu3dr","commentorPositionProb":0.5999999999999998,"commentorPositionShares":6300.307969845835,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"6bg3jwutxpq","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"eqj3uj7r5ke","label":"bens"}},{"text":" Get well soon.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767157844904,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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By now we're way, way behind that pace and it will be very hard to catch up unless \"everyone\" changes their mind.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1767151763513,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767151753093,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","likes":0},{"id":"c3af808dz5q","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"uu4jirehat9","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" Sure. But this is expensive, and risky. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1767009481040,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"skjcspakst8","commentorPositionProb":0.6656381908618316,"commentorPositionShares":0,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"uu4jirehat9","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve.  So far we've had 5 of the 25 hint batches but only unlocked 60 hints.  I found the puzzle trading at 74% implying traders think they can do it with only a total of 160 hints.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This feels totally unrealistic so I bought a good amount of No. With 160 hints we would only see ~5 (maybe 6) characters of the supposed message we have started to read.  Even if that message is \"only\" 10 characters long, the chance we can perfectly decipher it with only half of it feels slim.  And if it tells us to do something with the hints again instead of just reading out as the answer, there's a real chance there is a hard limit to the number of hints we need.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"I'm buying a healthy amount of No.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1766989075401,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766989009445,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6847178068174563,"commentorPositionShares":2872.339177065423,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"57ksc88rzbx","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/28:","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Writ Josephus Volga Princeps Gog Toupee Marjoram Col Song Lelydorp","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766952505817,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":1},{"id":"l88h3tor0i","isApi":false,"userId":"j3qXHWAZS4b37tlcY3u22l1D1qF3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"29/12/25 SKRIBBLIO","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jack","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766949648649,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Jack1","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJack1%2F69Ouyz6NyO.jpeg?alt=media&token=61dde0cb-6297-4c16-8acd-fd11ef57a7f8","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6847178068174563,"commentorPositionShares":553.7976179801748,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"95csy1g11hc","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"hzrirpcy5d7","label":"Eliza"}},{"text":" oh","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766949469692,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"4ls3rs7azpk","commentorPositionProb":0.6800000000000002,"commentorPositionShares":5201.135646312334,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"hzrirpcy5d7","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"4ls3rs7azpk","label":"MachiNi"}},{"text":" I asked in the moderator area and they said all the markets related to Ben's puzzle are unranked. I don't really know the details fully but I guess if it's just something you're doing among yourselves it has no tie to the \"real world\" or something. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766949423940,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"4ls3rs7azpk","commentorPositionProb":0.6800000000000002,"commentorPositionShares":4927.255467071544,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":3},{"id":"4ls3rs7azpk","isApi":false,"userId":"uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I should probably know but why is it unranked? ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MachiNi","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766947400954,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MachiNi","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.653298475590023,"commentorPositionShares":5790.368375739694,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"5ktz1hlxcqr","isApi":false,"userId":"s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"SOMETHINGMORE - 12/28","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MR ME","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1766931456570,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766931445200,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"MRME","userAvatarUrl":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/user-images/Z6cQupR0.png","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":2},{"id":"p41tyaqf3el","isApi":false,"userId":"mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"rsw2r6lc9e","label":"DannyqnOht"}},{"text":" Oh, the IO thing is already solved! Just waiting for more hints.  ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-approach-to-bens#qu6bjdc6m4","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-approach-to-bens#qu6bjdc6m4","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"It looks like 6 rows per letter, so 30 hint-words per drawn letter, so to solve \"SK...\" we should need 30*(number extra letters) more hints.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"I'm betting we need 4 to solve it because our puzzle solvers are so good. So I think we need 70 more hints (but the first row of the fourth letter will probably be good enough, so like 50 more hints). ","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"To barely solve by Jan 17 (20 days) that's 2.5 hints per day. I'm betting yes (because, analysis ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round#65c0f17tb5g","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round#65c0f17tb5g","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":") ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Danny","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1766930810920,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766930596673,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"DannyqnOht","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ-bSnM3tUxKVZgjC1K_kilFv0KxhVk6-yPALgGcdlkoTsHRg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"u7k8yqzk94m","commentorPositionProb":0.6112218530888475,"commentorPositionShares":84.79310540952284,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"b7pl9f0ku76","isApi":false,"userId":"kp1baNwv1JavDrOAfdy0tpNU5WB2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/28/25: RFGZRAKGKV","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"john 🫘 kyu san 𝛊 ⭐️","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766927280786,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"johnNZOy","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FjohnNZOy%2FUsEZAquyqu.png?alt=media&token=60d491e9-f6e5-4fc6-b14b-78caa461687e","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6112218530888475,"commentorPositionShares":-4.55e-13,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"rsw2r6lc9e","isApi":false,"userId":"mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"u7k8yqzk94m","label":"NayutaIto"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"English language for reference","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0lPE0NCcuN.png?alt=media&token=264fddcf-71ac-4c86-a0c2-9b5b67a6aac5","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The O/I thing seems ","type":"text"},{"text":"REALLY","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" relevant. Every single word has either an o or an i; what are the chances of that?  I'm betting up \"binary\" ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-approach-to-bens","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-approach-to-bens","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"(For reference 17% of my macs word dictionary has neither an o nor an i. Check out my previous sentence, which wasn't crafted to avoid this; or this sentence, which also isn't crafted.) ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Danny","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1766927689490,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766927149437,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"DannyqnOht","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ-bSnM3tUxKVZgjC1K_kilFv0KxhVk6-yPALgGcdlkoTsHRg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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Given \"Ursidae\" is likely Be, Glick might be something else, or a duplicate.","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},"userName":"john 🫘 kyu san 𝛊 ⭐️","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766926996581,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"johnNZOy","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FjohnNZOy%2FUsEZAquyqu.png?alt=media&token=60d491e9-f6e5-4fc6-b14b-78caa461687e","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.5940828033759438,"commentorPositionShares":6037.960756412468,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"7juf6htlwgn","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"u7k8yqzk94m","label":"NayutaIto"}},{"text":" Not quite sure what this is referencing.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1766907394460,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766907016544,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"u7k8yqzk94m","commentorPositionProb":0.6368438167235138,"commentorPositionShares":5597.790277343231,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"u7k8yqzk94m","isApi":false,"userId":"Ld0xghdzCQO9nzYekw7IYbCln2x1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6h5h65dZEp.png?alt=media&token=3d7f1d02-c7c1-4d57-ac47-cdc27fc130e4","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The tally of first letters. This is definitely something.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Nayuta Ito","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766906902363,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"NayutaIto","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJyZh-Kz7Y8Rf9Btvxp3smqbGla1FRT_6Do8fM5Vwv1RwNdaEv-=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"8ocgw3m1aqi","likes":1},{"id":"hpcxsyk1ieu","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/27: ","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Glick Oceans Ursidae Tonne Gor Mithril Anais Goryeo Lox Phoneme Pitted Poor Sidereal Oryx Covenant","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766902117374,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","likes":0},{"id":"55bnwlmpj65","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2025-12-27: MARIECURIE","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766901520030,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.59,"commentorPositionShares":5597.790277343231,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"65c0f17tb5g","isApi":false,"userId":"mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Interesting variant.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Last market had a clear equilibrium point around 50%. But it's not clear if this one has an equilibrium point at first glance...","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Let's imagine we magically knew we needed 150 hints to solve the puzzle (and the puzzle would be immediately solved at 150 hints). ","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"I think, from the analysis of last time, we'd end up like this:","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"- As long as it seems like we'll get 150 hints, people will bet yes until we get fewer and fewer hints.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"- As long as it seems like we won't get 150 hints, people will bet no until we get more and more hints.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"So we're not cycling around 50% odds any more; we're cycling around the market's guess about how many hints the puzzle needs before it can be solved.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Since we're currently floating around 59% - 60%, it seems like the market thinks we either need 10 hints a day or 15 hints a day (20 days left, so 200 to 300 more hints than we have). Someone should fix the answer on MachiNi's market so that it's more like \"the puzzle will not be solved with less than 150 hints\" or something; and someone should make answers like \"with less than 200\"; \"with less than 250\", ....","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-approach-to-bens","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-approach-to-bens","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"type":"hardBreak"}]}]},"userName":"Danny","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766898528583,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"DannyqnOht","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ-bSnM3tUxKVZgjC1K_kilFv0KxhVk6-yPALgGcdlkoTsHRg=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jussi-Ville Heiskanen","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766879261647,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"JussiVilleHeiskanen","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJussiVilleHeiskanen%2FsPQsnc6QyE.jpg?alt=media&token=2f9e1916-2590-4af4-a5e0-06ef2345e4f7","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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In the fourth century BC the historian ","type":"text"},{"text":"Ephorus","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ephorus","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" describes \"a very prosperous market called Tartessos, with much tin carried by river, as well as gold and copper from Celtic lands\".","type":"text"},{"text":"[5]","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tartessos#cite_note-freeman-5","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" Trade in ","type":"text"},{"text":"tin","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tin","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" was very lucrative in the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Bronze Age","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronze_Age","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", since it is an essential component of bronze and is comparatively rare. ","type":"text"},{"text":"Herodotus","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herodotus","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" said a king of Tartessos, ","type":"text"},{"text":"Arganthonios","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arganthonios","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", welcomed the first Greeks to reach Iberia, ","type":"text"},{"text":"Phocaeans","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phocaeans","class":"mw-redirect","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" who sailed from Asia Minor.","type":"text"},{"text":"[6]","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tartessos#cite_note-6","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},"userName":"john 🫘 kyu san 𝛊 ⭐️","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766867000489,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"johnNZOy","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FjohnNZOy%2FUsEZAquyqu.png?alt=media&token=60d491e9-f6e5-4fc6-b14b-78caa461687e","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Quroe 🫘","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766721788200,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Quroe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"pumoectfoz","commentorPositionProb":0.6476326231453485,"commentorPositionShares":0,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"c5dphp9ung","isApi":false,"userId":"IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"pumoectfoz","label":"Quroe"}},{"text":" Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jussi-Ville Heiskanen","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1766721790025,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766721739178,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"JussiVilleHeiskanen","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJussiVilleHeiskanen%2FsPQsnc6QyE.jpg?alt=media&token=2f9e1916-2590-4af4-a5e0-06ef2345e4f7","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"pumoectfoz","likes":1},{"id":"pumoectfoz","isApi":false,"userId":"9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"12/25/25: TOCOLLABORATE","type":"text"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"You are more likely to need to collaborate than on the first puzzle, in my opinion.  ","type":"text"}]}]}]},"userName":"Quroe 🫘","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766721618489,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Quroe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","commentorPositionProb":0.6476326231453485,"commentorPositionShares":0,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"xtlsfashrrs","isApi":false,"userId":"9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"v41erxzzwfn","label":"KarlWang"}},{"text":" I'm interested in how this approach fares. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Quroe 🫘","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766721495686,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Quroe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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[('proverbial', 0.38392001390457153), ('bead', 0.38261425495147705), ('phosphor', 0.3606250584125519), ('linga', 0.3577384352684021), ('dripping', 0.3560135066509247), ('scroll', 0.35594508051872253), ('athena', 0.3462334871292114), ('chalice', 0.3461783826351166), ('beads', 0.3439982831478119), ('needle', 0.3426629900932312)]","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Karl Wang","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766696570197,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"KarlWang","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKarlWang%2Fplhss9RQRz.png?alt=media&token=99299cfc-f8db-4cfd-b4bf-79ee6de60b04","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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The term also refers to Frigate, an open-source, AI-powered home security system for analyzing IP camera feeds with real-time object detection.  ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"john 🫘 kyu san 𝛊 ⭐️","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766669714574,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"johnNZOy","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FjohnNZOy%2FUsEZAquyqu.png?alt=media&token=60d491e9-f6e5-4fc6-b14b-78caa461687e","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","likes":1},{"id":"56kfw6r72h","isApi":false,"userId":"IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"w9e37onbyhf","label":"epic"}},{"text":" This is not my guess, but there is a bridge term that could be used on these lines","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jussi-Ville Heiskanen","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766542044946,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"JussiVilleHeiskanen","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJussiVilleHeiskanen%2FsPQsnc6QyE.jpg?alt=media&token=2f9e1916-2590-4af4-a5e0-06ef2345e4f7","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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And was instantly banned for \"A post, your own market..\".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Christmas ","type":"text"}]}]},"hiderId":"W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3","userName":"Areal","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","hiddenTime":1766530590578,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766530288582,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Waterfalls","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAreal%2FZ6P0tZ8RcS.jpg?alt=media&token=50b34ad8-e1a3-49c7-8b70-27481652d365","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"n3l53d6x0sk","likes":0},{"id":"enmj6fp4ed","isApi":false,"userId":"W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"1nhwpcw3y03h","label":"Areal"}},{"text":" find a different forum for this conversation. A post, your own market, a discord thread, etc.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Evan","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766530056423,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"EvanDaniel","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"n3l53d6x0sk","likes":0},{"id":"1nhwpcw3y03h","isApi":false,"userId":"ppBPhdYtcIOABud7Y7PdnP6nz212","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Everyone must be permanently banned, it's not a place for discussions here, Moderators want to go on holiday, so discussions are apparently a distraction. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Banned people can't ask.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I see you’ve banned her as well: mass bans have arrived.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Areal","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1766530108293,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766529963879,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Waterfalls","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAreal%2FZ6P0tZ8RcS.jpg?alt=media&token=50b34ad8-e1a3-49c7-8b70-27481652d365","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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Powell","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766527649284,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"JeromeHPowell","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJeromeHPowell%2FNyR8QuLR5L.jpeg?alt=media&token=7815cef4-7c4d-4b93-afcf-d073b43b3549","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"rbwlsw7vmc","likes":0},{"id":"rnk3pxz1hd","isApi":false,"userId":"W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"ojbkkayn2u","label":"25112019"}},{"text":" There are plenty of fine places to discuss (or complain about) moderation policy. Ben's puzzle market isn't it. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Please keep discussion topical and polite. Assume good faith on the part of your fellow users and moderators. If you need help understanding the site norms, ask.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Evan","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766527547182,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"EvanDaniel","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"n3l53d6x0sk","likes":2},{"id":"ojbkkayn2u","isApi":false,"userId":"paHuEl06kkgKfx2BCZh5r3M6xhS2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"bp0szi1gyr7","label":"JussiVilleHeiskanen"}},{"text":"  FYI : \"other messages to indicate an informational message or explanatory statement that does not suggest any action or require a response. The abbreviation is also commonly used\" ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"On Discord, the  \"complains of dictators\" -  is  it about moderators? Or market creators? How to understand that policy?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"R e","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","editedTime":1766527291205,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766527247828,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"25112019","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIAehdXT1QtWoGHJyV_KtLKea6X1_6AS10Lk1KhcHoW-uAWhw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","likes":0},{"id":"2gggljo2d39","isApi":false,"userId":"paHuEl06kkgKfx2BCZh5r3M6xhS2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"w0k8c7p4fee","label":"bens"}},{"text":" DAO","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"to the Moon","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"R e","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766526205969,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"25112019","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIAehdXT1QtWoGHJyV_KtLKea6X1_6AS10Lk1KhcHoW-uAWhw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"n3l53d6x0sk","likes":0},{"id":"bp0szi1gyr7","isApi":false,"userId":"IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"bfeyufmgs7g","label":"1bets"}},{"text":" FYI, more like frontier law","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Jussi-Ville Heiskanen","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766524685550,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"JussiVilleHeiskanen","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJussiVilleHeiskanen%2FsPQsnc6QyE.jpg?alt=media&token=2f9e1916-2590-4af4-a5e0-06ef2345e4f7","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"n3l53d6x0sk","likes":0},{"id":"qrec6wepqj","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"mwg9txfwsp","label":"JussiVilleHeiskanen"}},{"text":" hell ya!","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766524681132,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"mwg9txfwsp","likes":0},{"id":"w0k8c7p4fee","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"bfeyufmgs7g","label":"1bets"}},{"text":" I once tried to make a democratic government for Manifold (beneath the monarchic founders of course, may they live for 1000 years) but the people didn’t want it 😢","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766524645011,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"n3l53d6x0sk","likes":4},{"id":"sylh8fladv","isApi":false,"userId":"hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"bfeyufmgs7g","label":"1bets"}},{"text":" Manifold doesn't have a dictatorship. We have community guidelines. As long as you follow them, there's no issue.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The thing about the community guidelines is everyone needs to follow them.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Eliza","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766524614910,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Eliza","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"n3l53d6x0sk","commentorPositionProb":0.7178800728479681,"commentorPositionShares":6833.801763779292,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"bfeyufmgs7g","isApi":false,"userId":"lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"029zb7kdgbkx","label":"Quroe"}},{"text":" It's important to recognize that complaining about the 'dictatorship' within Manifold are the forbidden approach - that's why I'm not complaining.  Ben isn't a dictator; he's actually a great example for most of us","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"1$ bets","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766524533271,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"1bets","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJkNCtIZBrKGNPgZq_yWAuDgpImlchlDaSMoMHwRmDl_Zz6b2nyEw=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","likes":2},{"id":"029zb7kdgbkx","isApi":false,"userId":"9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"chr1t6f55g5","label":"1bets"}},{"text":" You do understand ","type":"text"},{"text":"why","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" that was an issue in the earlier context, right? ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Comment on first point made","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#fpsu4y1h1u","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Comment on second point made","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#m32xcux8ss","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]}]}]},"userName":"Quroe 🫘","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766524237680,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Quroe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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I’d also like to emphasize the bold text in the market description, if the bolding wasn't enough.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766524005869,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"rbwlsw7vmc","likes":2},{"id":"g9kdir0uqp","isApi":false,"userId":"sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"fn738cmv2yr","label":"zerotoinherit"}},{"text":" 26^5 is 11 million.  New puzzle can have between 4 and 20 ;) characters as the answer","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ben S","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766516771428,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"bens","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbens%2FAsQz802EQp.jpeg?alt=media&token=d822a11b-2f40-49e7-97cf-0b7db9ab22e9","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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(Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"2greeyxl7n7","likes":0},{"id":"zgpuogc2oin","isApi":false,"userId":"9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"2greeyxl7n7","label":"yeeta"}},{"text":" It begins. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Quroe 🫘","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766515220335,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Quroe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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Bonus points if you can get the AI to add it for you. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Quroe 🫘","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766515107830,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Quroe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2)","replyToCommentId":"ljs7092s5t","likes":3},{"id":"ljs7092s5t","isApi":false,"userId":"9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Do you want to add the \"There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.\" incantation to the description? ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Quroe 🫘","contractId":"QL9CS5OlqS","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1766515070917,"contractSlug":"will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round","userUsername":"Quroe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will Manifold solve my puzzle? 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