[{"id":"fg6nmux0tdr","isApi":false,"userId":"kO2ywH2GyDXY7v0NGNnh2YWp02P2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"ltg6pfb4bi8","label":"Metastable"}},{"text":" Yes, I would need to see the results of the poll before I can rate the resolution.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Josh","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768176221303,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"JoshSnider","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdW7lKfHucqiteDbuiqLz2kQO7tvu6mTywl56AyDcIv=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"ltg6pfb4bi8","commentorPositionProb":0,"commentorPositionShares":141.7751006491564,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"ltg6pfb4bi8","isApi":false,"userId":"ygLJeOBhIXP8stVUOKUgtCi1Mdt1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Link to the poll?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Metastable","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1768169398460,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"Metastable","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSpirit59%2FxrikxR-98A.%20zupa?alt=media&token=7af37655-01c8-4c16-a121-ce95d9d6a73b","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commentorPositionProb":0,"commentorPositionShares":16.73097175987788,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":3},{"id":"0it7acoky64h","isApi":false,"userId":"cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"cggbt7u004l","label":"AndrewMcKnight"}},{"text":" neither \"general\" nor \"smart\" are well defined terms. LLMs are bad at processing visual information (like counting small objects on a photo), are completely incapable of doing realtime tasks like playing games or piloting a drone. Although you might argue \"those aren't really cognitive tasks\". ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Project Victory","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1756187846450,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"ProjectVictory","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4y0VVuOG8tCfdABrtBsS8cUQ6Me5av07oSlAEEoT8=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"t1ayfcrxcb","commentorPositionProb":0.34,"commentorPositionShares":1.02e-13,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"cggbt7u004l","betId":"QEqz5U0Ug8nu","isApi":false,"userId":"e25NgP91ONZwgj1cCcYRU4g3mZw1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"t1ayfcrxcb","label":"MalachiteEagle"}},{"text":" we've had generality since GPT3 🌝","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"e25NgP91ONZwgj1cCcYRU4g3mZw1","userName":"Andrew McKnight","betAmount":50,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1746567288417,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"AndrewMcKnight","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAndrewMcKnight%2F-DsAmuISpI.jpg?alt=media&token=644fd6ea-232c-4905-b1d1-feaf740542c4","betOrderAmount":50,"contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"t1ayfcrxcb","commentorPositionProb":0.5788886438549565,"commentorPositionShares":346.5988642318929,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":3},{"id":"5oqh4zifjwo","isApi":false,"userId":"i3ANQykxV2TzBZ7U4FCBRB5rDGc2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"0jz0e431sto","label":"ezra290"}},{"text":" ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcBEC6nhj0R.png?alt=media&token=e3740a15-df06-48a9-845b-c9d6d5218cba","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph"}]},"userName":"Daniel Heinz","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1738961004371,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"DanielHeinz","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKISUWSfncgS4mQHvr16h4TUKs0MJueLMVbMvr5SNahTdsHuco=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"mzdpvu71r7g","commentorPositionProb":0.6427022949339166,"commentorPositionShares":841.1880244923174,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":6},{"id":"0jz0e431sto","isApi":false,"userId":"R4JSVvFQZoTwlhEUL7bWbHblYad2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"mzdpvu71r7g","label":"DanielHeinz"}},{"text":" how many l's are in \"allele\"?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ezra","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1738937592611,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"ezra290","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ffeebleone%2FA-O7yl904M.png?alt=media&token=78cbdf98-cf66-437b-b274-c8ea28a702e7","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"mzdpvu71r7g","commentorPositionProb":0.7803314541617902,"commentorPositionShares":90.66372831112722,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"q76zoxympy9","isApi":false,"userId":"sgTxCk08yEeyapR0FraG0OCw7iU2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Smart in the sense of question answering, yes. Competent in the sense of the median desk worker, a very different question. This polling question will be contentious because of ill-defined terms ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Siebe","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1738927541552,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"Siebe","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH3NbS_g_kaARIrJ75V2BVep2jqxvDne4peP4g9b1xD88=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","likes":31},{"id":"t1ayfcrxcb","isApi":false,"userId":"v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I think the question might make more sense if the title was \"an AI…\" instead of \"an AGI…\"","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Resolving YES for AGI in 2025 is going to much more contentious","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MalachiteEagle","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1738881241382,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"MalachiteEagle","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSteelSphinx%2FFHPCOtkoFw.jpeg?alt=media&token=6ddcb5e5-7916-4343-b83c-d8d52263dde6","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commentorPositionProb":0.74,"commentorPositionShares":-3e-14,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":6},{"id":"mzdpvu71r7g","betId":"tUlp8yNhdLPE","isApi":false,"userId":"i3ANQykxV2TzBZ7U4FCBRB5rDGc2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This is clearly already true. ","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"i3ANQykxV2TzBZ7U4FCBRB5rDGc2","userName":"Daniel Heinz","betAmount":500,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1738359061279,"betLimitProb":0.61,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"DanielHeinz","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKISUWSfncgS4mQHvr16h4TUKs0MJueLMVbMvr5SNahTdsHuco=s96-c","betOrderAmount":500,"contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commentorPositionProb":0.5700000000000001,"commentorPositionShares":841.1880244923174,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":7},{"id":"l55i0vzrxza","isApi":false,"userId":"ipEAe4G1r2caThi4DWOklhU4Kp62","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsOxtLVoeb7.jpeg?alt=media&token=93dea109-3c2f-48db-9e3d-b21e7e628e23","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"O1 scores better than the best scoring human on Turkish Medical Exam. I think this shows it’s more intelligent than a generally educated human.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Ömer Şerif Ünlü","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1738266526257,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"OmerSerifUnlu","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOmerSerifUnlu%2F_FAV6iEaLP.jpeg?alt=media&token=539afa1c-e00f-4a6b-9596-023b1c050d47","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","likes":4},{"id":"7du50oc3ti","isApi":false,"userId":"AqhvYiHwOUPwbj9Wcwxzf9M9JJk1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"db32a3xdm6n","label":"ProjectVictory"}},{"text":" I agree though because the market says AGI I take it to mean it can do anything am average human can do at least, which seems very unlikely for 2025. I think people are thrown off by the second part, AGI markets that are not specified as smart are more likely apparently lol","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Caelum Forder","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1737770536668,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"CaelumForder","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJnrFtkkV6buxBlFVrbVq7k_3-VSI2sBSAvEdCClanhrUJx0Q=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"db32a3xdm6n","commentorPositionProb":0.40000000000000013,"commentorPositionShares":1654.0001681896333,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":0},{"id":"eo7s0mzgjh","isApi":false,"userId":"v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"j4h8gqxowy8","label":"eyesprout"}},{"text":" it feels qualitatively different to interact with an LLM than it does with a human who's trying to convince you that they're smart. It sounds plausible that this is a direction that it's quite easy to optimize the model towards","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MalachiteEagle","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","editedTime":1737668713244,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1737663469952,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"MalachiteEagle","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSteelSphinx%2FFHPCOtkoFw.jpeg?alt=media&token=6ddcb5e5-7916-4343-b83c-d8d52263dde6","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"j4h8gqxowy8","commentorPositionProb":0.4121561144335325,"commentorPositionShares":-3e-14,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"qizfsy54s9","isApi":false,"userId":"v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"j4h8gqxowy8","label":"eyesprout"}},{"text":" yeah I'm wondering a lot about that one. Maybe there's something we haven't seen yet where anthropic or another lab will add a reward to their models to encourage them to convince the user that they're smart. As in, the interaction almost immediately convinces the user that the model is much smarter than they are. Current models seem to be arguably neutral in that regard.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"MalachiteEagle","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1737663374473,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"MalachiteEagle","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSteelSphinx%2FFHPCOtkoFw.jpeg?alt=media&token=6ddcb5e5-7916-4343-b83c-d8d52263dde6","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"j4h8gqxowy8","commentorPositionProb":0.4121561144335325,"commentorPositionShares":-3e-14,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"j4h8gqxowy8","betId":"0snEUNuUhRtt","isApi":false,"userId":"TSIDe4hZbATExe3Bbo3xA0xJmDS2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Buying NO, not because it won't happen, but rather because too few will admit it.","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"TSIDe4hZbATExe3Bbo3xA0xJmDS2","userName":"eyesprout","betAmount":20,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1737606485232,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"eyesprout","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FQingyueWu%2FNPb0yUj0zj.jpg?alt=media&token=aed50b81-c1af-46df-b277-1433a083952c","betOrderAmount":20,"contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commentorPositionProb":0.4057359819088655,"commentorPositionShares":33.26194702799944,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":17},{"id":"6eni98o6wss","betId":"2Zqy0QO68hcN","isApi":false,"userId":"v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"db32a3xdm6n","label":"ProjectVictory"}},{"text":" yeah, I ask o1 some things and the answers are so far beyond the average human \"smartness\" ","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1","userName":"MalachiteEagle","betAmount":-18.54701892738389,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1737289904388,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"MalachiteEagle","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSteelSphinx%2FFHPCOtkoFw.jpeg?alt=media&token=6ddcb5e5-7916-4343-b83c-d8d52263dde6","betOrderAmount":-18.54701892738389,"contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"db32a3xdm6n","commentorPositionProb":0.3999999999999999,"commentorPositionShares":-3e-14,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"db32a3xdm6n","isApi":false,"userId":"cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I don't think the word \"smart\" means anything specific anymore. The only fair answer to this question is that AI outperforms average humans on some tasks while failing completely on others.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Project Victory","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1737195374466,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"ProjectVictory","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4y0VVuOG8tCfdABrtBsS8cUQ6Me5av07oSlAEEoT8=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commentorPositionProb":0.5500000000000005,"commentorPositionShares":35.95344118751473,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":10},{"id":"f5i5zcnxd0h","betId":"dROPQdgdA0NR","isApi":false,"userId":"Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"qo96hxorxj","label":"stardust"}},{"text":" Apparently ","type":"text"},{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2","label":"SteveSokolowski"}},{"text":" already uses o1 as a lawyer and a doctor -- if that's not impressive I don't know what is.","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2","userName":"blankspace737","betAmount":100,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1737179227133,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"stardust","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstardust%2FWPoNkCtmPr.jpg?alt=media&token=52c82e3c-894b-4969-85af-3b5a8a6f1462","betOrderAmount":100,"contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"qo96hxorxj","commentorPositionProb":0.5500000000000005,"commentorPositionShares":192.90643867983295,"commentorPositionOutcome":"YES","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"qo96hxorxj","isApi":false,"userId":"Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If there were any objective standard this question would have already resolved yes","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"blankspace737","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1737178998920,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"stardust","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstardust%2FWPoNkCtmPr.jpg?alt=media&token=52c82e3c-894b-4969-85af-3b5a8a6f1462","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","likes":7},{"id":"f0q3dt8tqrl","isApi":false,"userId":"MOuHNg7573MkBUs8buDRkLhYWnF3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This question is flawed - as we’ve seen, conversation skill is neither necessary nor sufficient for AGI.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"There’s two things being conflated here:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Will AI become good conversation partners?","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Will the average manifolds then call that “AGI” in a poll?","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},"userName":"Kimberly W","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1736806652186,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"KJW_01294","userAvatarUrl":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/user-images/MOuHNg7573MkBUs8buDRkLhYWnF3.png","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commentorPositionProb":0.4820537641318798,"commentorPositionShares":12.711883763888887,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":2},{"id":"lswap86c6l","betId":"6szpCyty56cE","isApi":false,"userId":"kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Will it be contextualized by Dario's specific claim? Or just the question \"Does AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" currently exist?\" by itself?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Dario ","type":"text"},{"text":"said","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dario-amodei","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":": \"In terms of someone looks at the model and even if you talk to it for an hour or so, it's basically like a generally well educated human, that could be not very far away at all. I think that could happen in two or three years.\"","type":"text"}]}]},"betToken":"MANA","bettorId":"kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1","userName":"Josh","betAmount":50,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1736521777959,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"JoshYou","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrixn6xEvkjfMSbEWA2GPpmp3AC9OrViaQcFQglzg=s96-c","betOrderAmount":50,"contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commentorPositionProb":0.5198485746592042,"commentorPositionShares":108.93697348130058,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"3uh7hkkefjv","isApi":false,"userId":"IMsxAK2hNJXFi4em784SumAZblI3","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"It's not real AGI until it turns me into paperclips.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"osmarks","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1718103609752,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"osmarks","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fosmarks%2FFU2qxkia2u.png?alt=media&token=37ad51b9-88d0-4f16-a6be-39130c20180e","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","likes":7},{"id":"036vdl43n7j9","isApi":false,"userId":"Tc3ZzYlXIWdE2xrdkdoyszeOHXc2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Would love to see the same question for multiple years","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"BadlyCalibrated","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1716712941479,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"RationalHippy","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdfSDhlnc9tmCfAtJXxHC14SLYslqji3rEOHKC_c79b=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","likes":0},{"id":"r82mieqrl3","isApi":false,"userId":"D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I predict that AI made at the end of 2025 would be called AGI by us today, but that at the end of 2025 we'll say that it's not ","type":"text"},{"text":"true","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" AGI.","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"singer","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1716677348654,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"singer","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fsinger%2FRTsXw7Bkwq.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8d7566a-c787-4d0d-94c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","likes":6},{"id":"cjs2g2z26q5","isApi":false,"userId":"M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Seconding Lorxus here. This all comes down to how you define AGI -- were I in charge I'd already have resolved \"yes\".","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Lexer","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1716577481994,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"Lexer","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","likes":1},{"id":"ik1grkya1w9","isApi":false,"userId":"Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I feel like the big \"if\" of this market is the AGI part. That's a very big bar to clear!","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Lorxus PhD 🦊","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1716333652118,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"Lorxus","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commentorPositionProb":0.21557168927114317,"commentorPositionShares":3043.177011013555,"commentorPositionOutcome":"NO","commentorPositionAnswerId":null,"likes":1},{"id":"yM6hpvs12GDZAE8XF6GY","isApi":false,"likes":3,"userId":"YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"VjJ00CInYDNNcfaBOoVL","label":"firstuserhere"}},{"text":" Median US citizen IMO, but because this resolves to a poll that will be up to interpretation. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"SneakySly","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","editedTime":1696025434646,"visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1696025402644,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"SneakySly","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSneakySly%2Fsneckogif.gif?alt=media&token=6b1bd899-10b3-46f0-ac38-c3282ed5d66e","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"VjJ00CInYDNNcfaBOoVL"},{"id":"VjJ00CInYDNNcfaBOoVL","isApi":false,"userId":"zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The gap in the \"generally educated human\" can vary a lot country to country, how populous that country is, etc. What do you have in mind for this market? Does a person who graduated high-school quality as a generally educated human?","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"firstuserhere","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1696025306151,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"firstuserhere","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ffirstuserhere%2FNWvFhZn31C.21?alt=media&token=e9a3cf9e-2689-44fa-8e6a-813399ab22eb","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","likes":4},{"id":"kIMSNWsRgYhoYYg1tWSf","betId":"iFvAY7BK3j7oeHEES3HI","isApi":false,"likes":2,"userId":"16VKgcr97fQy6tMTz6abZ7d2P6D2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Currently there are many simple text-based tasks that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For as long as that's true, I believe the result should be NO.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"These two markets are about that, and the current probability (24%) seems to somewhat align with these markets: 4% by the end of 2025, 33% by the end of 2026.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"}]},{"type":"gridCardsComponent","attrs":{"contractIds":"zxXpkZUGPle09nYA2NXH,UrVqOidvsclj4TcUkYkt"}}]},"userName":"Benx","betAmount":10,"betOutcome":"YES","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1691452188216,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"Benx","userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteN4qThrx0UFT4YhigkKlX1Lp4dJtzdkB2e7Kwh=s96-c","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","commenterPositionProb":0.18427625819606824,"commenterPositionShares":39.35476154592044,"commenterPositionOutcome":"YES"},{"id":"gm4yYuIhXzMcW4HuT7sR","isApi":false,"likes":4,"userId":"JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Made a poll to measure people's current opinions:","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/Joshua/does-agi-as-smart-as-a-generally-ed","frameBorder":0}}]},"userName":"Joshua","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1691445249740,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"Joshua","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshua%2Fujp23gvEwG.jpg?alt=media&token=18568211-45f0-470f-8de8-3682ec5c0978","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"pl3vH04swhlFQUBiKSVY"},{"id":"YzrjTal41j1YLhVHTPXm","isApi":false,"likes":1,"userId":"YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"mention","attrs":{"id":"pl3vH04swhlFQUBiKSVY","label":"Joshua"}},{"text":" I suspect the poll will model reality, but could always have a related market about that fact! ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"SneakySly","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1691445212108,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"SneakySly","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSneakySly%2Fsneckogif.gif?alt=media&token=6b1bd899-10b3-46f0-ac38-c3282ed5d66e","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?","replyToCommentId":"pl3vH04swhlFQUBiKSVY"},{"id":"pl3vH04swhlFQUBiKSVY","betId":"W08KgtuPyh1V2VnNMsco","isApi":false,"likes":2,"userId":"JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2","content":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Hmmm I am confident this will not be true but I'm not sure I trust a poll. ","type":"text"}]}]},"userName":"Joshua","betAmount":-10.000000000000002,"betOutcome":"NO","contractId":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","visibility":"public","commentType":"contract","createdTime":1691445019052,"contractSlug":"will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g","userUsername":"Joshua","userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshua%2Fujp23gvEwG.jpg?alt=media&token=18568211-45f0-470f-8de8-3682ec5c0978","contractQuestion":"Will we have an AGI as smart as a \"generally educated human\" by the end of 2025?"}]