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Exchange","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Welcome to the Fantasy Football Stock Exchange! FFSX is an actual ","type":"text"},{"text":"fantasy football","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fantasy_football_(gridiron)","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" league anyone can join to win real money “buying” and “selling” the stock prices of NFL fantasy players that directly correspond to their on-field performance. No buy-in required; $500 USD for 1st place in the 2022 season.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Join this league for free and start playing right now","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"To learn more, continue reading or watch this 5-minute video overview","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/VxpiRUTerE0","frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"How it Works","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For this league, each fantasy-relevant QB, RB, WR, and TE will be represented by a “stock” that has its own prediction market asking how many fantasy points that player will score in the 2022-2023 NFL regular season. For example: the ","type":"text"},{"text":"$CMC","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/FFSX/cmc","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" stock is represented by a market that crowdsources how many total PPR fantasy points Christian McCaffrey will score from Weeks 1-18.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/FFSX/cmc","frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"See all available player stocks/markets on the “Markets” tab","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The market/stock for a given player will open at a pre-defined number value, for example “350”, corresponding to the projected number of fantasy points expected to be scored by that player through the end of the 2022-2023 regular season.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"At the end of the season, each market associated with this FFSX group/league will resolve to the ","type":"text"},{"text":"final number of PPR points","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://fantasydata.com/nfl/fantasy-football-leaders?position=1&season=2022&seasontype=1&scope=1&subscope=1&scoringsystem=2&startweek=1&endweek=1&aggregatescope=1&range=1","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" scored by that fantasy player. So, if Christian McCaffrey scores 300 points, the ","type":"text"},{"text":"$CMC","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/FFSX/cmc","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" stock resolves to 300.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The most skilled league members will buy low and sell high throughout the season. For reference, here’s how the top 25 fantasy players scored last year:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FWNrPp_88FS.png?alt=media&token=e90f9b10-e8e0-4027-a961-727fb9391da6","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"See full 2021 PPR scoring results ","type":"text"},{"text":"here","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://fantasydata.com/nfl/fantasy-football-leaders?position=1&season=2021&seasontype=1&scope=1&subscope=1&scoringsystem=2&startweek=1&endweek=1&aggregatescope=1&range=1","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Prizes","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The top 20 traders on the “Top traders” leaderboard at the conclusion of the 2022 regular season (sometime shortly after January 8th, 2023) will receive prizes in the following USD amounts:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1st place: $500","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2nd place: $400","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"3rd place: $300","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"4th place: $200","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"5th-10th places: $100 each","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"11th-20th places: $50 each","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The above prize pool has been graciously donated by ","type":"text"},{"text":"Manifold Markets","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://docs.manifold.markets/#who-are-we","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". No financial entry is needed or required to be eligible for prizes. If you are a prize winner, you will receive an email to the email associated with your Manifold Markets account requesting your details about where to send payment via Paypal or Venmo. Participants who respond to that email with payment details by January 31st, 2023 will be guaranteed payout, although the Commissioner will make every attempt to contact winners to ensure payouts are received.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Additional Details","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"All markets will resolve to the number of fantasy points scored by the corresponding fantasy player according to FantasyData’s ","type":"text"},{"text":"Fantasy Football Stats page","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://fantasydata.com/nfl/fantasy-football-leaders?season=2021&seasontype=1&scope=1&subscope=1&scoringsystem=2&startweek=1&endweek=1&aggregatescope=1&range=1","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" with the following filters set:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Season","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2022","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Regular","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"PPR","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":null,"src":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/nTBqnTlhB_6o4T607aapqAuhReSX6Rsb5bmod_nRY8BKdDa57qNP0tWBwwmoI_le-yj5ryPtu4CXZuTl075kkEer2Bi_qlnVQAL9CoOYAJRoJftD0y8bOQbpoKa7IjCshkGeetCQ_FSuF8362-wj06g","title":null}}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Full PPR scoring criteria ","type":"text"},{"text":"here","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://fantasydata.com/api/fantasy-scoring-system/nfl","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". Note that final resolution does include scoring from Week 18. Any player scoring over 500 points will resolve “500”. Any player scoring fewer than 0 points will resolve “0”. Markets will resolve to the nearest whole number.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This league begins immediately. The Commissioner expects to have markets for all fantasy-relevant players created by Sunday, August 28th, 2022 but most markets are expected to be created before then.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"New markets may be added from time to time for players who the Commissioner judges to have become fantasy relevant. To stay abreast of new markets, visit the ","type":"text"},{"text":"FFSX group","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/group/fantasy-football-stock-exchange?referrer=FFSX","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" Markets tab and sort by “Newest”.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"There is no way to prevent league members from ","type":"text"},{"text":"purchasing additional mana","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/add-funds","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" from Manifold Markets to increase the size of their portfolio beyond the M$1,000 default amount provided upon sign up, or to increase their portfolio size by gaining profits on other markets within the Manifold Markets universe. These league members may use these extra funds to increase their ability to bid in more markets at once or at higher amounts.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Other members of the Manifold Markets community may interact with markets for this league. Only those who are members of the FFSX group and in the top 20 on the Top Traders leaderboard will be eligible to receive prizes.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Like any financial market, this league highly rewards league members who are quick to react to news, including but not limited to injuries, trades, etc. League members who have skills making and updating player projections may also do well, especially if they know how to code against the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Manifold API","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://docs.manifold.markets/api","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" to automate trades.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"League chat will be on the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Manifold Discord","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://discord.com/invite/eHQBNBqXuh","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Given that any Manifold Market member can join and add markets to this group/league, league members are encouraged to watch for and alert the group and Commissioner of any markets added to this group that should not be counted toward leaderboard stats. Any member found intentionally adding markets for their own benefit will be ineligible for any winnings. All legitimate markets will be created by the official ","type":"text"},{"text":"@FFSX","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/FFSX?tab=markets","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" Manifold Markets account.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The creation of multiple Manifold Market accounts for the explicit purpose of manipulating leaderboard profits or any other forms of collusion or distortion of the intent of this league will result in investigation and possible ineligibility for winnings. The Commissioner has final authority over all prize distributions. His account (@dglid) and the FFSX account (@FFSX) are ineligible for prizes.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you haven’t noticed by now, this is not a traditional fantasy football league. There is no draft, no rosters, no waivers, dynasty considerations, fantasy football-specific platform/app, etc etc. It’s just the smartest forecasters making profit on Manifold Markets by bidding up or down player stocks based on projected player performance.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I (David Glidden) am the Commissioner of this league and can be reached either by tagging ","type":"text"},{"text":"@dglid","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/dglid","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" or by getting in touch ","type":"text"},{"text":"@fantasyforecstr","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://twitter.com/fantasyforecstr","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" on Twitter or davdwglidden [at] gmail dot com.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you like this concept, you may be interested in joining the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Fantasy Football (NFL) Manifold Markets group","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/group/fantasy-football-nfl","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" to participate in other fantasy football-related markets.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This league concept is inspired by the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX)","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.hsx.com/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". An early version of this league idea was discussed by Scott Fish and Ryan McDowell on the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Commission: Impossible Podcast Episode #60","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/commission-impossible-60-three-cool-league-ideas-and-more/id1181984256?i=1000509415456","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". Initial projections are set using ","type":"text"},{"text":"Mike Clay’s season-long projections for ESPN","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/22/NFLDK2022_CS_ClayProjections2022.pdf","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Best Interest Clause","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This league is a new experimental league conducting its first season in 2022. 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To submit, go to ","type":"text"},{"text":"this page","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/submit","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We hope that the Prizes help us to:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Identify new cause areas and funding strategies.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Develop our thinking on how best to measure impact.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Find people who might be a good fit to work with us in the future.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"You can read more about the Cause Exploration Prizes on our dedicated ","type":"text"},{"text":"website","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http://www.causeexplorationprizes.com/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". You’ll also be able to read all of the submissions on the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Effective Altruism Forum","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" later this summer – stay tuned!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Prizes, rules, and deadlines","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"All work must be","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"submitted","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/submit","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"by 11:00 pm PDT on August 11, 2022 (deadline extended on July 28)","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"August 4, 2022","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"strike"}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"You are almost certainly eligible. 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","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"It is at the National People’s Congress, essentially the CCP’s convention held every five years where the ceremonial announcement and formal introduction of the leaders chosen to form the next Chinese government takes place.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/wil-hu-chuhua-be-the-next-premier-o/will-ccps-20th-party-congress-keep/will-li-keqiang-be-reappointed-to-t/will-li-zhanshu-be-reappointed-to-t","height":"400px","frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Norm Buster","type":"text"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"alt":"","src":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a7743dd-4cd5-4aa9-a14f-d50f68a7e085_680x661.webp","title":null}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Western political systems have long operated based on a combination of norms detailed written documents that lay out the processes and procedures for maintaining the continuity of government and implementing the will of the people. 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This group has one market for each entry, asking: \"Will this essay win first or second place?\"","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"To encourage more forecasting, Manifold is sponsoring a forecasting tournament with a $1000 USD prize pool. Show off your prediction or evaluation skills, and win real USD if you're correct!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Rules","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The intent of this tournament is to reward individuals who are best at predicting which cause exploration essays will win the prize. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"USD prizes will be awarded to the top 20 traders in proportion to profit earned in this group","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Only 1 account per person can trade in this market","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Don't collude with other people to inflate your or their profits","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Like don't transfer money to your friends account via betting a market artificially high/low and having them correct it","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"All forms of trading are allowed (including API, limit orders)","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Manifold reserves the right to modify rules, exclude participants, and other changes necessary to abide by the spirit of this tournament","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Cause Exploration Prize Judgement Criteria","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Copied from ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":"EA Forum","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iqcph4DbcP4PZGyDB/open-philanthropy-s-cause-exploration-prizes-usd120k-for","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"italic"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"At Open Philanthropy, we aim to give as effectively as we can. 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So we’ve launched the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Cause Exploration Prizes","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" around a set of questions that will help us explore new areas.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We’re most interested in responses to our ","type":"text"},{"text":"open prompt","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/open-prompt","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":": “What new cause area should Open Philanthropy consider funding?”","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We also have prompts in the following areas:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Health","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/health","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Development","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/development","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Worldview Investigations","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/worldview-investigations","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We’re looking for responses of up to 5,000 words that clearly convey your findings. It’s fine to use bullet points and informal language. For more detail, see our ","type":"text"},{"text":"guidance for authors","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/guidance","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". To submit, go to ","type":"text"},{"text":"this page","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/submit","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We hope that the Prizes help us to:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Identify new cause areas and funding strategies.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Develop our thinking on how best to measure impact.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Find people who might be a good fit to work with us in the future.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"You can read more about the Cause Exploration Prizes on our dedicated ","type":"text"},{"text":"website","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http://www.causeexplorationprizes.com/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". You’ll also be able to read all of the submissions on the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Effective Altruism Forum","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" later this summer – stay tuned!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Prizes, rules, and deadlines","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"All work must be","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"submitted","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/submit","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"by 11:00 pm PDT on August 11, 2022 (deadline extended on July 28)","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"August 4, 2022","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"strike"}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"You are almost certainly eligible. We think these questions can be approached from many directions; you don’t need to be an expert or have a PhD to apply.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"There’s a $25,000 prize for the top submission, and three $15,000 prizes. Anyone who wins one of these prizes will be invited to present their work to Open Phil’s cause prioritization team in San Francisco (with compensation for time and travel). And we will follow up with authors if their work contributes to our grantmaking decisions!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We will also award twenty honorable mentions ($500), and a participation award ($200) for the first 200 submissions ","type":"text"},{"text":"made in good faith","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.squarespace.com/rules-faqs","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" and not awarded another prize.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"All submissions will be shared on the Forum to allow others to learn from them.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" If participants prefer, their submission can be published anonymously, and we can handle the logistics of posting to the Forum. See more detail ","type":"text"},{"text":"here","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/submit","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For full eligibility requirements and prize details, see our ","type":"text"},{"text":"rules and FAQs","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://causeexplorationprizes.com/rules-faqs","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you have any questions not answered by that page, contact us at ","type":"text"},{"text":"hello@causeexplorationprizes.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"mailto:hello@causeexplorationprizes.com","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},"creatorId":"XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2","createdTime":1661529164215,"totalMembers":41,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0},{"id":"cwf259E8FrbeHwytqDqP","slug":"cinema","name":"Cinema","about":"","creatorId":"EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1","createdTime":1661561974966,"totalMembers":27,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.1366667829257316},{"id":"tgXkqBzB3NEhtpQxJdNa","slug":"house-of-the-dragon","name":"House of the Dragon","about":"","creatorId":"tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2","createdTime":1661579338314,"totalMembers":5,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.05354800490281924},{"id":"5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm","slug":"premiere-league","name":"Premier League","about":"","creatorId":"uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2","createdTime":1661598524419,"totalMembers":402,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.052481007713721085},{"id":"HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46","slug":"australia","name":"Australia","about":"","creatorId":"LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2","createdTime":1661647986411,"totalMembers":93,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.14338975521353775},{"id":"eGQaygk9D261Iu1uBpDA","slug":"poland","name":"Poland","about":"","creatorId":"T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2","createdTime":1661675390198,"totalMembers":47,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.025779849339118574},{"id":"S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1","slug":"mathematics","name":"🧮 Math","about":"","creatorId":"y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2","createdTime":1661728067362,"totalMembers":12260,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.5143168469069717},{"id":"VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq","slug":"sf-2022-ballot","name":"SF 2022 Ballot","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Note by Austin 2022-09-07: We'll set up some kind of prediction tournament/payout over these markets eventually; until then, feel free to start trading and earning profits!","type":"text"}]}]},"creatorId":"igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2","createdTime":1661746124479,"totalMembers":2,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.03128726487672233},{"id":"w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs","slug":"elections-world","name":"Elections: World","about":"","creatorId":"TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2","createdTime":1661779322908,"totalMembers":214,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.3314262994458115},{"id":"rCuXL6t9gAHm82vbWLoN","slug":"leaders","name":"Leaders","about":"","creatorId":"TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2","createdTime":1661779617846,"totalMembers":10,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.04717879956251142},{"id":"pmzRc63DbvLsfEz4vh4J","slug":"labor","name":"Labor","about":"","creatorId":"1peFzLQ2AUXC5NzE9xWsRByeMSF3","createdTime":1661796217408,"totalMembers":9,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.03361315880502702},{"id":"ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit","slug":"turkey","name":"Turkey","about":"","creatorId":"LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2","createdTime":1661806940272,"totalMembers":22,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.041245247312716816},{"id":"12UQvie9Z9Laymmmn8U3","slug":"frcs-group","name":"FRC's group","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"Pinned Markets:","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-stable-diffusion-have-more-goo/will-megacity-chengdus-lockdown-las/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kher/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up","height":"400px","frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}}]},"creatorId":"tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3","createdTime":1661864931974,"totalMembers":2,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.040718045257294104},{"id":"H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl","slug":"improperly-resolved","name":"Improperly Resolved","about":"Any inaccurate, dishonorable, mistaken, dubious resolutions (broadly inclusive). 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Tournament","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Manifold Markets is going to be running a one-week f2p challenge where the Manifold Markets team compete with one another to see who can earn the most mana. Users are also welcome to play along!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"Details","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"To be eligible, you must make a new account containing “f2p” eg. SirSalty F2P. Use your main account (not a f2p one) to tag your f2p account as an answer in this market.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The event begins NOW (used to be Friday 9th 08:00 PST but changed it to start now instead) and ends on Friday 16th 10:00 PST.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The main winner is the individual with the highest Portfolio Value at the end of the event.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"At closing time users should screenshot their investment value and post it as a comment to their answer.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"Aims","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Understand how it feels to be limited to a small balance.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Identify frustration that can accompany using the app to earn mana (which often doesn’t align with how you would want to use it to maximise fun/value).","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Learn the most effective ways to earn mana.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Explore the social competitive/tournament potential of Manifold.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Have fun!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"Prizes","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The top performers from the community will receive free Manifold Merch and a manalink.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The Manifold team member who performs the best receives:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Pride","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"A personal poem or song of praise from each losing Manifold team member to be recited during drop-in hours or all-hands standup.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Side prize: The person with the highest profit is exempt from writing a Haiku (assuming they aren’t the overall winner).","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"Rules","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The ","type":"text"},{"text":"500 manalink","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/link/lj4JbBvE","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" as part of the onboarding email flow may be used immediately to bring your starting balance up to M$1500.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Mana cannot be added to your account through manalinks (except the initial one), purchases, or direct edits in firebase.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Any mana received through tips cannot be used and must be discarded by donating it to charity. This is to prevent people from gaining an unfair advantage such as people users betting on who they think will win and then tipping them a ton of mana.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Mana earned through referrals, unique trader bonuses, and betting/selling is allowed.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Users may not bet on their f2p created markets with any of their other accounts. ","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Users may not bet on a market with both their f2p account and their main account (otherwise mana could be transferred between accounts by doing this).","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For Manifold team only: ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"You cannot feature your own f2p markets","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For Manifold team only:","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" You are strictly prohibited from creating markets, betting, tipping, and creating answers on any accounts besides your f2p one during the duration of the event. This is to partly avoid cheating, but mainly so you get to go through the new user experience of being limited to a certain amount of mana and how it forces you to interact with the site. You may still use your other accounts to comment and subside markets as long as they aren’t created by any f2p accounts.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"There’s a cheating Twist!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"On the final two days (so Wednesday 14th 09:00 PST onwards) cheating is encouraged. Any cheating before the final 2 days is not allowed and will result in immediate disqualification.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If someone correctly accuses you of cheating during the last 2 days you must discard double however much mana you earned from that specific cheat. The accuser must state with accuracy exactly how the offender cheated. Thorough evidence is not necessary if they can identify the cheat and outline the specifics of what they suspect. Cheats can be reported for up to 24 hours after the conclusion of the event (until Saturday 17th 09:00 PST).","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For example, you could attempt to sneak yourself a manalink or try to sneak yourself some tips. Or create another new account to benefit from. But I assume people are going to be keeping an eye on the backend and amplitude to watch out for cheating so be careful! :P","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Any form of cheating is allowed except the following:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Resolving markets incorrectly","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Using admin privileges to cheat in ways regular users wouldn’t be able to (eg. directly editing your balance in firebase or featuring/delisting f2p markets).","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Sep 9, 4:37am: Updated rules to change start date. Also changed rules so that f2p markets can be featured, you just can't feature your own.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sep 9, 5:37am: Added rule 5. and 6. about betting with main account on f2p stuff.","type":"text"}]}]},"creatorId":"QxvNGGVt6hY18l9CLDNi2GBvVb33","createdTime":1662694407162,"totalMembers":3,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.037622973834244},{"id":"kV57SoDVhV0XmMPpECLz","slug":"south-korea","name":"South Korea","about":"","creatorId":"Td8BtEF3PoWxxYIpgxpQHAkZJAr2","createdTime":1662724007809,"totalMembers":17,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.031923079325069124},{"id":"pVKR2KM76d8lzB9aRWdD","slug":"great-british-bake-off","name":"Great British Bake Off","about":"","creatorId":"tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2","createdTime":1662753532053,"totalMembers":5,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0},{"id":"gFhjgFVrnYeFYfxhoLNn","slug":"best-dem-pres-cand","name":"Best Dem Pres Cand","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This group is a set of markets to find the best Democratic presidential candidate. Each candidate gets a pair of markets of the form:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Will <NAME> WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Will <NAME> LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"A WIN market resolves YES if <NAME> wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to win the general election. A LOSE market is the same but requires the nominee to lose the presidential election. Each market resolves NO if the candidate is not nominated or gets the opposite result.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The ratio between the WIN and LOSE markets indicates how likely a candidate is to win if nominated. The sum of the WIN and LOSE markets indicates how likely a candidate is to be nominated.","type":"text"}]}]},"creatorId":"sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1","createdTime":1662771275788,"totalMembers":9,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.04355282121611027},{"id":"ZRQ4KAulHfp7Ud1KjFUD","slug":"shanghai-cooperation-organization-s","name":"Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)","about":"","creatorId":"prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2","createdTime":1662773411214,"totalMembers":3,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.05528612666296454},{"id":"DaLEsm5lBFjkVpIWHa10","slug":"paradox-interactive","name":"Paradox Interactive","about":"","creatorId":"e7vQaQHWrcRixDLP03bqnfAU7wa2","createdTime":1662791826882,"totalMembers":10,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.04330765222711966},{"id":"eNqO5LPoMPwiTrcjeugI","slug":"useless-bets","name":"Useless bets","about":"","creatorId":"T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2","createdTime":1662833020379,"totalMembers":2,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.02959026525190924},{"id":"2i6fbccCzqrKyYbLXRrG","slug":"ukraine-counteroffensive","name":"Ukraine Counteroffensive","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you want your YES shares to be worth more, you can donate mana to ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/charity/mriya","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/charity/mriya","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"! #notsponsored","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Please ping me if you want me to add more markets to this group.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Luhansk oblast","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Svatove","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-ukraine-regain-control-over-al/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-svat","frameBorder":0,"allowFullScreen":true}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Lysychansk","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/Yev/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-lysy","frameBorder":0,"allowFullScreen":true}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Donetsk oblast","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Mariupol","type":"text"}]},{"type":"gridCardsComponent","attrs":{"contractIds":"E1r2CAE05m7nbOr4Yyt5,4XHrp167WGuAz1LrYn6c"}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Zaporizhzhia oblast","type":"text"}]},{"type":"gridCardsComponent","attrs":{"contractIds":"eqnAl3EmhyTwRs1Zzexc,xeITCPvgSE0K7ZBOM4dg"}},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/Yev/will-ukraine-control-any-territory-e64578a2c24a","frameBorder":0,"allowFullScreen":true}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Kherson oblast","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/Yev/will-ukraine-control-any-territory","frameBorder":0,"allowFullScreen":true}}]},"creatorId":"Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2","createdTime":1662852657282,"totalMembers":19,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.06741212193847536},{"id":"FLrBFpNYWTnUjhOEHv2F","slug":"the-tesla-stock-index","name":"The Tesla Stock Index","about":"","creatorId":"lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33","createdTime":1662905529059,"totalMembers":4,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.029861027198528303},{"id":"LHPEN470d1jPLU7YIzv5","slug":"washifold","name":"Washifold","about":"","creatorId":"TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2","createdTime":1662967627005,"totalMembers":8,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.05506596757793271},{"id":"wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY","slug":"millenium-prize-problems","name":"Millennium Prize Problems","about":"","creatorId":"fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42","createdTime":1663039604896,"totalMembers":114,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.1442466767979762},{"id":"16Dd093xD5l7K0OhZrSo","slug":"asterisk-magazine","name":"Asterisk Magazine","about":"","creatorId":"l5ltKD8v0ScUzYBmTi3t9qAFpae2","createdTime":1663093630072,"totalMembers":3,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.025850123628777963},{"id":"aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV","slug":"tesla","name":"Tesla","about":"","creatorId":"MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2","createdTime":1663162302000,"totalMembers":553,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.29630123108962986},{"id":"liOkEmeEOfGNS0gbaGJq","slug":"armenia","name":"Armenia","about":"","creatorId":"T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2","createdTime":1663178232235,"totalMembers":12,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.049930619750691185},{"id":"KbJbnxa5LtQMbiEFURwc","slug":"sinquefield-cup-chess-scandal","name":"Sinquefield Cup Chess Scandal","about":"","creatorId":"7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1","createdTime":1663195652847,"totalMembers":16,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.046650948121972416},{"id":"b2qssyhkcQwuTMyiUduy","slug":"xxxtrial","name":"xxxTrial","about":"","creatorId":"bZASKgsVeJg8WUK7mWX3yOrxIB42","createdTime":1663230377207,"totalMembers":1,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.017786596016794925},{"id":"9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam","slug":"selfresolving","name":"🪞 Self-resolving","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Self-resolving markets are markets that resolve based on the market itself, instead of the author deciding how to resolve them. In general, this isn't a very good idea, as many experiments have demonstrated: the reason markets work is because participants make profits based on whether they are correct or not, and in a self-resolving market there is nothing to actually tie the market resolution to the real-world question that was asked, so there's no reason to expect the market to have anything to do with the question.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"But there are several reasons people are interested in exploring them:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1) Asking questions where determining an answer is expensive. For example, it might take a massive amount of data collection work or it might cost millions of dollars to run a randomized controlled trial.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2) Asking highly subjective questions, such as:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Should Universal Basic Income exist in the US?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/universal-basic-income-should-exist","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"At the end of 2023 will manifold users think Twitter has changed for the better?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/at-the-end-of-2023-will-manifold-us","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/did-the-nsa-work-to-weaken-postquan","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Did Hans Niemann cheat against Magnus Carlsen?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/jack/did-hans-niemann-cheat-against-magn","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Is supersymmetry realized in nature?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/is-supersymmetry-correct-72ea597fd12b","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"These questions are often poll-like, and indeed resolving to the result of a poll is a common way to design them.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"3) Many blockchain systems use protocols for forming a consensus resolution that are similar to self-resolution, and they have similar dangers, and it's interesting to explore how to make them more robust. For example, Polymarket uses an oracle where token holders essentially vote with cryptocurrency to settle disputed resolutions, and there are a couple ","type":"text"},{"text":"examples ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/jack/how-will-polymarket-uma-resolve-the","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"of ","type":"text"},{"text":"misresolutions","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/#comment-100012","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I think it's valuable to find tweaks to make such markets work better, and valuable to have experiments demonstrating how they can go wrong.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you are an author thinking about creating a market along these lines, I think these methods work much better:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Resolving to the result of a poll. Examples: ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/at-the-end-of-2023-will-manifold-us","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/at-the-end-of-2023-will-manifold-us","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" and ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-we-believe-sbf-committed-willf","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-we-believe-sbf-committed-willf","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". While they aren't perfect, polls tend to work a lot better at getting a reasonable result and being mostly (but not 100%) robust to market manipulation. ","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Some random chance of resolving the normal way, otherwise resolve N/A. Imagine a market predicting the result of an expensive experimental trial. This mechanism means you only have to actually run the trial some fraction of the time, and it is incentive-compatible (you can't profit on the market by manipulating it). Example: ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/jack/does-gdpr-require-selfserviceautoma","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/jack/does-gdpr-require-selfserviceautoma","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". Downside is that profit incentives for making good predictions are correspondingly lower.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"And, if you really want to resolve-to-mkt despite the flaws:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you are ok with some author subjectivity, you can say \"Resolves to MKT but the author will override if it looks like market manipulation\". This has empirically worked ok for many low-stakes markets, but you do have to acknowledge that it becomes very subjective. The line between voting your beliefs and manipulating the market can be very blurry.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Or, if you want to avoid that sort of subjective resolution mechanism, you should at least include a) a random chance of resolving the normal way based on external data, and b) protections against last-minute price manipulation such as a randomized close time or quiescence criteria. E.g. ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-biden-be-president-on-october-fb3d01633429","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-biden-be-president-on-october-fb3d01633429","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" I do not believe this is as robust against manipulation as a simple poll, while being far more complicated, but at least it's better than a resolve-to-mkt without those features.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The problem is that the reason prediction markets work is that participants profits are based on whether they are correct or not. If the market resolution is instead based only on what the market participants say, and not based on any external data about the actual question, then it can become completely disconnected from the question it is trying to answer - it's a Keynesian beauty contest.","type":"text"}]}]},"creatorId":"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23","createdTime":1663251316208,"totalMembers":278,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.041245247312716816},{"id":"5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh","slug":"spacex","name":"🚀 SpaceX","about":"","creatorId":"MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2","createdTime":1663259746702,"totalMembers":1172,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.6691592234328765},{"id":"9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre","slug":"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e","name":"🚗 Elon musk","about":"","creatorId":"MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2","createdTime":1663260181657,"totalMembers":6882,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.733910767578963},{"id":"fhksfIgqyWf7OxsV9nkM","slug":"clearer-thinking-regrants","name":"Clearer Thinking Regrants","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We (","type":"text"},{"text":"ClearerThinking.org","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http://ClearerThinking.org","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":") are running a ","type":"text"},{"text":"regranting","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/apply-to-the-clearer-thinking-regrants-program","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" program, and we're partnering with Manifold Markets to run a forecasting tournament related to it with $13,000 of prizes! As part of the regranting process, we reviewed over 630 applications. We are now down to 37 finalists. Of the 37 finalists, 28 have opted in to having information about their project shared on Manifold as part of the forecasting tournament.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We anticipate providing at least some funding to about half of the projects (i.e., roughly 14 out of the 28), though this could vary significantly depending on our final assessments of the projects (which are ongoing and which we hope to complete by September 28).","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We're asking you (as a forecaster on Manifold) to weigh in on these applications by:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Predicting which projects we will select to regrant ","type":"text"},{"text":"any ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"funding to, and","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Making arguments or providing us with information that changes our minds about who to fund. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"There will be prizes for both forecasting accuracy and for providing information that changes our minds. The total prize pool is ","type":"text"},{"text":"$13,000 USD","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"! Please note that further terms and conditions for these prizes can be found at the bottom of this page.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Click on the ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"Markets tab","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/group/clearer-thinking-regrants/markets","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" to start forecasting!","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Tournament Rules","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"$3,000: Information component","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you have an argument (e.g., about why you think a project is promising or not promising) or public information you want to share about any project, you can share it as a comment directly on the Manifold market for that project.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you have private information, information that could harm anyone, or information where you're not sure whether it should be public or not, please send it to ","type":"text"},{"text":"clearerthinkingregrants@gmail.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"mailto:clearerthinkingregrants@gmail.com","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We will give $250 to each person who gives one of the top 12 arguments or pieces of information that most changes our minds regarding our funding decisions - either influencing who to fund or how much funding to provide to a project (based on our own subjective judgment of how much the provided information changed our minds)! You can feel free to submit as many arguments/pieces of information as you like, but we won't give more than 3 such awards to any one person.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"$10,000: Prediction component","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The other goal of this tournament is to reward individuals who do the best at predicting which grant applications we select to receive ","type":"text"},{"text":"any","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" funding from our regranting program. Our grants will be a minimum of $10,000 per project, up to a conceivable maximum of $500,000 (but what matters for the sake of the prediction component is whether we recommend to our funder that a project receive ","type":"text"},{"text":"any","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" funding at all, not ","type":"text"},{"text":"how much","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" funding we recommend be given).","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Here are the rules for the prediction component of the tournament:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"USD prizes will be awarded to the top 20 traders based on total profit in this group of markets:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1st place: $3000","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2nd: $2000","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"3rd: $1000","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"4th: $750","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"5th: $500","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"6th-10th: $250","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"11th-20th: $150","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Only one account per person can trade in this market.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Don't collude with other people to inflate your or their profits.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For example, don't transfer money to your friend's account via betting a market artificially high/low and having them correct it.","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"All forms of trading are allowed (including API and limit orders).","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Manifold and Clearer Thinking reserve the right to: modify rules, exclude participants, or make any other changes necessary to abide by the spirit of this tournament.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"What information have applicants been asked to provide? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The 37 finalist applicants were given ","type":"text"},{"text":"this form","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hHqcSAQ9Y0zFzx1yg7FEUQnHA3WlANnOElbdIOgPwKM/edit?usp=sharing","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" to complete, and all of them submitted it to us. For the 28 applicants who opted-in to sharing versions of their application documents on Manifold Markets, we asked them to remove any information that they did not want to be shared publicly.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"How are the final projects being chosen? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We are ","type":"text"},{"text":"attempting","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" to choose the projects that we predict to have the highest expected value in terms of improving the future.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"A market will resolve in favor of a project being funded if Clearer Thinking ","type":"text"},{"text":"selects","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" that project as one to provide ","type":"text"},{"text":"any","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" funding to (even if, for some reason, the project fails to receive the money - for instance, if it is shut down by the people running it before the money is received).","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"How did we get from >630 applications to this shortlist of finalists? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In ","type":"text"},{"text":"round 1","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" of this selection process, more than 630 projects were each scored independently by two reviewers (who did ","type":"text"},{"text":"not","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" know the applicant personally) on four criteria:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"VALUE TO THE WORLD IF IT SUCCEEDS:","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" if this project was successful (at its CONCRETE goals), how much value would you expect it to add to the world?","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC PLAN:","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" how good do you think the team's plan is (relative to how confident we could be in any plan with this little information)?","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"CONFIDENCE IN THE TEAM'S ABILITY TO EXECUTE THE PLAN:","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" how good do you think this team will be at implementing this plan (relative to how confident we could be in any team with this little information)?","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"RELEVANCE:","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" how aligned is the goal of this project to the kinds of ideas that the FTX Future Fund (our funder for the regranting program) wants to fund? ","type":"text"},{"text":"(See their areas of interest here.)","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://ftxfuturefund.org/area-of-interest/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The scores were combined by first averaging the two confidence scores (to derive an \"Average confidence\" score), then calculating the geometric mean of \"Value,\" \"Average confidence,\" and \"Relevance\" (i.e., the cube root of the product of the three scores).","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Each reviewer's score was converted to a z-score using that reviewer's mean and standard deviation so that each score became a measure of how well a particular project had done according to that reviewer (relative to the other projects rated by that reviewer). The z-scores were then averaged together for each pair of reviewers who reviewed that project to produce a final score for each project.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The top 58 projects (according to these averaged scores) were selected for progression to the next round (unfortunately, there were ","type":"text"},{"text":"many","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" strong projects that could not progress to the next round).","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In ","type":"text"},{"text":"round 2,","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" the top 58 projects from the last round were voted on by a group of reviewers. Votes were cast in such a way that we did not know how others were voting until after we had cast our own votes.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Clearer Thinking narrowed the shortlist down from 58 to 39 projects based on round 2 voting (plus asking two applicants who had more than one shortlisted project to pick just one for the next round). But a further two applicants withdrew after seeing the final round process, leaving 37 applicants for the next round.","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In ","type":"text"},{"text":"round 3","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" (the current round), the 37 applicants have the choice to opt-in to being listed on Manifold or not. 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People are leaning towards MAD Lions or Evil Genuises, but perhaps DFM or BYG could be potential dark horses.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/DavidChee/will-evil-geniuses-make-it-out-of-p","height":0,"frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/DavidChee/will-mad-lions-make-it-out-of-playi","height":0,"frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Which teams will perform the best?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Finally, people have begun making bold statements on which teams will have deep runs. 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of these questions: ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"tiptapTweet","attrs":{"tweetId":"t1573394028011589632"}}]},"creatorId":"IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2","createdTime":1663963631752,"totalMembers":8,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.025834929199102817},{"id":"OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih","slug":"apple","name":"🍎 Apple","about":"","creatorId":"T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3","createdTime":1664066578320,"totalMembers":832,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.1302482299804116},{"id":"hNry8vNf1feqITYzkyUT","slug":"adobe","name":"Adobe","about":"","creatorId":"T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3","createdTime":1664067753226,"totalMembers":1,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.07782930409311466},{"id":"G71hVdQqs1RbmxkGBUC8","slug":"google-trends","name":"Google 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Expert","about":"","creatorId":"LPBkPkSULscVDKHXw2hksZuxIZG3","createdTime":1664096992310,"totalMembers":1,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.03453259220688168},{"id":"K86LmEmidMKdyCHdHNv4","slug":"cart-contest","name":"CART Contest","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Crossposted from ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":"the EA Forum.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"italic"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Introduction","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"tl;dr: We're running a writing contest for critically engaging with theory or work in effective altruism (EA). ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Submissions can be in a range of ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"formats","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Formats","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" (from fact-checking to philosophical critiques or major project evaluations); and can focus on a range of ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"subject matters","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#What_to_submit","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" (from assessing empirical or normative claims to evaluating organizations and practices).  ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We plan on distributing $100,000","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", and we may end up awarding more than this amount if we get many excellent submissions. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The deadline is ","type":"text"},{"text":"September 1, 2022","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":". You can find the submission instructions ","type":"text"},{"text":"below","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#How_to_apply","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". ","type":"text"},{"text":"Neither formal nor significant affiliation with effective altruism is required to enter into the contest.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We are:","type":"text"},{"text":" Lizka Vaintrob","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/lizka","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" (the","type":"text"},{"text":" Content Specialist","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aeR2Pses3TjWW8H9t/hello-from-the-new-content-specialist-at-cea","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" at the Centre for Effective Altruism),","type":"text"},{"text":" ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/jtm","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"Fin Moorhouse","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/finm","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" (researcher at the Future of Humanity Institute), and ","type":"text"},{"text":"Joshua Teperowski Monrad","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/jtm","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" (biosecurity program associate at Effective Giving). The contest is funded via the ","type":"text"},{"text":"FTX Future Fund","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/future-fund","class":"TagHoverPreview-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" Regranting Program, with organizational support from the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Centre for Effective Altruism","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/centre-for-effective-altruism-1","class":"TagHoverPreview-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We ","type":"text"},{"text":"‘pre-announced’ this contest in March","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fx8pWSLKGwuqsfuRQ/pre-announcing-a-contest-for-critiques-and-red-teaming","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The rest of this post gives more details, outlines the kinds of critical work we think are especially valuable, and explains our rationale. We’re also sharing ","type":"text"},{"text":"a companion resource for criticisms and red teams","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uuQDgiJJaswEyyzan/resource-for-criticisms-and-red-teaming","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"How to apply","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Submit by posting on the EA Forum","type":"text"},{"text":"[1]","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#fnwyhqsiy6e4","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" and tagging the post","type":"text"},{"text":"[2]","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#fn3kedvlnnl","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" with ","type":"text"},{"text":"the contest’s tag","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/critiques-and-red-teaming-contest","class":"TagHoverPreview-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", or by filling out ","type":"text"},{"text":"this form","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forms.gle/ydNTFC9rivVeoXY46","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you post on the Forum, you don't need to do anything except tag your post","type":"text"},{"text":"[2]","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#fn3kedvlnnl","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" with the “","type":"text"},{"text":"Criticism and Red Teaming Contest","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/critiques-and-red-teaming-contest","class":"TagHoverPreview-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"” topic, and we’ll consider your post for the contest. If you’d prefer to post your writing outside the Forum, you can ","type":"text"},{"text":"submit it via this form","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forms.gle/ydNTFC9rivVeoXY46","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" — we’d still encourage you to ","type":"text"},{"text":"cross-post","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8yDsenRQhNF4HEDwu/link-posting-is-an-act-of-community-service","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" it to the Forum (although please be mindful of copyright issues). ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We also encourage you to refer other people’s work to the contest if you think more people should know about it. To refer someone else’s work, please ","type":"text"},{"text":"submit it via this form","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forms.gle/ydNTFC9rivVeoXY46","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". If it wins, we may reward you for this — please see an explanation below.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The deadline is September 1, 2022.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Please ","type":"text"},{"text":"contact us","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Contact_us","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" with any questions. You can also comment here.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Prizes","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We have $100,000 currently set aside for prizes, which we plan on fully distributing.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Prizes will fall under three main tiers:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Winners: ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"$20,000","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Runners up: ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"$5,000 each","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Honourable mentions: ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"$1,000 each","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In addition, we may award ","type":"text"},{"text":"a prize of $100,000","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" for outstanding work that looks likely to cause a very significant course adjustment in effective altruism.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Therefore, we’re prepared to award (perhaps significantly) more than $100,000 if we’re impressed by the quality and volume of submissions. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We’re also offering a bounty for referring winning submissions","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":": if you ","type":"text"},{"text":"refer","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#How_to_apply","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" a winning submission (if you’re the first person to refer it, and the author never entered the contest themselves), you’ll get a referral bounty of 5% of the award.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We will also consider helping you find proactive funding for your work if you require the security of guaranteed financial support to enable a large project (though we may deduct proactive funding from prize money if you are awarded one). See ","type":"text"},{"text":"the FAQ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Q_A","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" for more details.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Submissions must be posted or submitted no later than ","type":"text"},{"text":"11:59 pm BST on September 1st","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", and we’ll announce winners by the end of September.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Criteria","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Overall, we want to reward critical work according to a question like: “","type":"text"},{"text":"to what extent did this cause me to change my mind about something important?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"” — where “change my mind” can mean “change my best guess about whether some claim is true”, or just “become significantly more or less confident in this important thing.”","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Below are some virtues of the kind of work we expect to be most valuable. We’ll look out for these features in the judging process, but we’re aware it can be difficult or impossible to live up to all of them:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Critical","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":". The piece takes a critical or questioning stance towards some aspect of EA theory or practice. Note that this does ","type":"text"},{"text":"not","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" mean that your conclusion must end up disagreeing with what you are criticizing; it is entirely possible to approach some work critically, check the sources, note some potential weaknesses, and conclude that the original was broadly correct.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Important","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":". The issues discussed really matter for our ability to do the most good as a movement.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Constructive and action-relevant.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" Where possible we would be most interested in arguments that recommend some specific, realistic action or change of belief. It’s fine to just point out where something is going wrong; even better to be constructive, by suggesting a concrete improvement.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Transparent and legible. ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"We encourage ","type":"text"},{"text":"transparency about your process","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.openphilanthropy.org/reasoning-transparency","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":": how much expertise do you have? How confident are you about the claims you’re making? What would change your mind? If your work includes data, how were they collected? Relatedly, we encourage ","type":"text"},{"text":"epistemic legibility","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oRx3LeqFdxN2JTANJ/epistemic-legibility","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":": the property of being ","type":"text"},{"text":"easy to argue with","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":", separate from being correct.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Aware","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":". Take some time to check that you’re not missing an existing response to your argument. If responses do exist, mention (or engage with) them.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Novel","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":". The piece presents new arguments, or otherwise presents familiar ideas in a new way. Novelty is great but not always necessary — it’s often still valuable to ","type":"text"},{"text":"distill","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EbvJRAvwtKAMBn2td/distillation-and-research-debt","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" or “translate” existing criticisms.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Focused. ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"Critical work is often (but not always) most useful when it is focused on a small number of arguments and a small number of objects. We’d love to see (and we’re likely to reward) work that engages with specific texts, strategic choices, or claims.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We don't expect that every winning piece needs to do well at every one of these criteria, but we do think each of these criteria can help you most effectively change people’s minds with your work.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We also want to reward clarity of writing, avoiding ‘punching down’, awareness of context, and a ","type":"text"},{"text":"scout mindset","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HDAXztEbjJsyHLKP7/outline-of-galef-s-scout-mindset","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". We don’t want to encourage personal attacks, or diatribes that are likely to produce much more heat than light. And we hope that subject-matter experts who don’t typically associate with EA find out about this, and share insights we haven’t yet heard.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"What to submit","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We’re looking for critical work that you think is important or useful for EA. That’s a broad remit, so we’ve suggested some topics and kinds of critiques below.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you’re looking for more detail,","type":"text"},{"text":" we’ve collaborated on ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"a separate post","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uuQDgiJJaswEyyzan/resource-for-criticisms-and-red-teaming","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" that collects resources for red teaming and criticisms","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", including guides to different kinds of criticisms, and examples. If you’re interested in participating in this contest, we highly recommend that you take a look. (We’d also love help updating and improving it.)","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"It’s helpful —but not required — to also suggest 1–3 people you think most need to heed your critique. For many topics, this nomination is better done privately (","type":"text"},{"text":"contact us","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Contact_us","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", or submit through ","type":"text"},{"text":"the form","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forms.gle/ydNTFC9rivVeoXY46","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"). We’ll send it their way where possible. (If you don’t know who needs to see it most, we’ll work it out.) ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Formats","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"You might consider framing your submission as one of the following:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Minimal trust investigation","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" — A ","type":"text"},{"text":"minimal trust investigation","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.cold-takes.com/minimal-trust-investigations/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" involves suspending your trust in others' judgments, and trying to understand the case for and against some claim yourself. Suspending trust does ","type":"text"},{"text":"not","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" mean determining in advance that you’ll end up disagreeing.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Red teaming ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"— ","type":"text"},{"text":"‘Red teaming’","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/a-guide-to-red-teaming","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" is the practice of “subjecting [...] plans, programmes, ideas and assumptions to rigorous analysis and challenge”. You’re setting out to find the strongest reasonable case against something, whatever you actually think about it (and you should flag that this is what you’re doing).","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Fact checking and chasing citation trails","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" — If you notice claims that seem crucial, but whose origin is unclear, you could track down the source, and evaluate its legitimacy.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Adversarial collaboration","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" — An ","type":"text"},{"text":"adversarial collaboration","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adversarial_collaboration","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" is where people with opposing views work together to clarify their disagreements.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Clarifying confusions","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" — You might simply be confused about some aspect of EA, rather than confidently critical. You could try getting clear on what you’re confused about, and why.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Evaluating organizations","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" — including their (implicit) theory of change, key claims, and their track record; and suggesting concrete changes where relevant.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Steelmanning and ‘translating’ existing criticism for an EA audience","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" — We’d love to see work succinctly explaining these existing ideas, and constructing the strongest versions (‘","type":"text"},{"text":"steelmanning","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/steelmanning","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"’) them. You might consider doing this in collaboration with a domain expert who does not consider themself part of the EA community.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Again, for more detail on topic ideas, kinds of critiques, and examples: visit ","type":"text"},{"text":"our longer post with resources for critiques and red teams","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uuQDgiJJaswEyyzan/resource-for-criticisms-and-red-teaming","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We don’t want to give an analogous list for ","type":"text"},{"text":"topic ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":"ideas, because any list is necessarily going to leave things out. However, you might take a look at Joshua’s post outlining ","type":"text"},{"text":"four categories of effective altruism critiques","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HzyYoLK2ERTnDmrjB/four-categories-of-effective-altruism-critiques","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":": ","type":"text"},{"text":"normative and moral","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" questions, ","type":"text"},{"text":"empirical","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" questions, ","type":"text"},{"text":"institutions","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" & ","type":"text"},{"text":"organizations","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", and ","type":"text"},{"text":"social norms","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" & ","type":"text"},{"text":"practices","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":". ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Browsing ","type":"text"},{"text":"this Forum","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" (especially curated lists like ","type":"text"},{"text":"the Decade Review prizewinners","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FEFEvC6BzswR4oQqm/results-from-the-first-decade-review","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", ","type":"text"},{"text":"the EA Wiki","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/all","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", and ","type":"text"},{"text":"the EA Handbook","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/handbook","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":") could be a good way to get ideas if you are new to effective altruism.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If you’re unsure whether something you plan on writing could count for this contest, feel free to ask us.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Additional resources","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We’ve compiled ","type":"text"},{"text":"a companion post","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uuQDgiJJaswEyyzan/resource-for-criticisms-and-red-teaming","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", in which we’ve collected some resources for criticisms and red teaming. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We’re also tentatively planning on running (or helping with) several workshops on criticisms and red teaming, which will be open to anyone who is interested, including people who are new to effective altruism. We hope that the first two will be in June. If you’d like to hear about dates when they’re decided, you can ","type":"text"},{"text":"fill out this form","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forms.gle/2nLZ6ieTmBQfJ2xk8","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"The judging panel","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The judging panel is:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Rebecca Kagan","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/rebecca-kagan","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", J.D. Candidate at Harvard Law School and formerly an External Affairs Specialist at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Jessica McCurdy","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/jessica_mccurdy","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", Groups Associate at the Centre for Effective Altruism","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Zachary Robinson","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/team/zachary-robinson","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", Chief of Staff at Open Philanthropy","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Applied Divinity Studies","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://applieddivinitystudies.com/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", independent blogger","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Charlotte Siegmann","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/charlottesiegmann","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", Research Fellow at Longview Philanthropy; Predoctoral Research Fellow in Economics at the Global Priorities Institute","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"TJ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/particlemania/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", Research Scholar at the Future of Humanity Institute","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Owen Cotton-Barratt","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/owen_cotton-barratt","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", independent researcher and board member of the Centre for Effective Altruism","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Gavin Leech","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/technicalities","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", founder of ","type":"text"},{"text":"Arb Research","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://arbresearch.com/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", Strategic Advisor to ","type":"text"},{"text":"Emergent Ventures","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.mercatus.org/emergent-ventures","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" panel on AI Talent, AI PhD student","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Nicole Ross","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nicole_ross","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", Head of Community Health at the Centre for Effective Altruism","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Xuan","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/xuan","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/xuan","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"(Tan Zhi Xuan)","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/xuan","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", AI PhD student at MIT, Board Member of EA Singapore","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"…and ourselves: ","type":"text"},{"text":"Lizka","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/lizka","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", ","type":"text"},{"text":"Fin","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.finmoorhouse.com/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", and ","type":"text"},{"text":"Joshua","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/team/joshua-monrad/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"No one on the judging panel will be able to “veto” winners, and every submission will be read by at least two people. If submissions are technical and outside of the panelists’ fields of expertise, we will consult domain experts. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If we get many submissions or if we find that the current panel doesn’t have enough bandwidth, we may invite more people to the panel. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Rationale","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Why do we think this matters? In short, we think there are some reasons to expect good criticism to be undersupplied relative to its real value. And that matters: as EA grows, it’s going to become increasingly important that we scrutinize the ideas and assumptions behind key decisions — and that we welcome outside experts to do the same.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Encouraging criticism is also a way to encourage a culture of ","type":"text"},{"text":"independent thinking","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", and ","type":"text"},{"text":"openness to criticism and scrutiny ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"within the EA community. Part of what made and continues to make EA so special is its epistemic culture: a willingness to question and be questioned, and freedom to take contrarian or unusual ideas seriously. As EA continues to grow, one failure mode we anticipate is that this culture may give way to a culture of over-deference.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We also really care about ","type":"text"},{"text":"raising the average quality of criticism","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":". Perhaps you can recall some criticisms of effective altruism that you think were made in bad faith, or otherwise misrepresented their target in a mostly unhelpful and frustrating way. If we don’t make an effort to encourage more careful, well-informed critical work, then we may have less reason to complain about the harms that poor-quality work can cause, such as by misinforming people who are learning about effective altruism. Crucially, we’d also miss out on the real benefits of higher-quality, good-faith criticism.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In his opening talk","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://youtu.be/olX_5WSnBwk?t=1307","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" for ","type":"text"},{"text":"EA Global","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.eaglobal.org/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" this year, Will MacAskill considered how a major risk to the success of effective altruism is the risk of degrading its quality of thinking: “if you look at other social movements, you get this club where there are certain beliefs that everyone holds, and it becomes an indicator of in-group mentality; and that can get strengthened if it’s the case that if you want to get funding and achieve very big things you have to believe certain things — I think that would be very bad indeed. Looking at other social movements should make us worried about that as a failure mode for us as well.”","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"It’s also possible that some of the most useful critical work goes relatively unrewarded because it might be less attention-grabbing or narrow in its conclusions. Conducting really high-quality criticism is sometimes thankless work: as the blogger Dynomight ","type":"text"},{"text":"points out","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://dynomight.net/arguing/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", there’s rarely much glory in fact-checking someone else’s work. We want to set up some incentives to attract this kind of work, as well as more broadly attention-grabbing work.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Ultimately, critiques have an impact by bringing about actual changes. The ultimate goal of this contest is to facilitate those positive changes, not ","type":"text"},{"text":"just","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" to spot what we’re currently getting wrong.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In sum, we think and hope: ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Criticism will help us form truer beliefs, and that will help people with the project of doing good effectively. People and institutions in effective altruism might be wrong in significant ways — we want to catch that and correct our course.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"orderedList","attrs":{"start":1},"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This is especially important in the non-profit context, since it lacks many of the signals in the for-profit world (like prices). For-profit companies have a strong signal of success: if they fail to make a profit, they eventually fail. One insight of effective altruism is that there are weaker pressures for nonprofits to be effective — to achieve the goals that really matter — because their ability to fundraise isn’t necessarily tied to their effectiveness. Charity evaluators like GiveWell do an excellent job at evaluating nonprofits, but we should also try to be comparably rigorous and impartial in assessing EA organizations and projects, including in areas where outputs are harder to measure. Where natural feedback loops don’t exist, it’s our responsibility to try making them!","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"It’s also especially important for effective altruism, given that so many of the ideas are relatively new and untested. We think this is especially true of longtermist work.","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Stress-testing important ideas is crucial even when the result is that the ideas are confirmed; this allows us to rely more freely on the ideas.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We want to sustain a culture of intellectual openness, open disagreement, and critical thinking. We hope that this contest will contribute to reinforcing that culture.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Highlighting especially good examples of criticism may create more templates for future critical work, and may make the broader community more appreciative of critical work.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We also think that people in the effective altruism network tend to hear more from other people in the network, and hope that this contest might bring in outside experts and voices. (You can see more discussion of this phenomenon in \"","type":"text"},{"text":"The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pxALB46SEkwNbfiNS/the-motivated-reasoning-critique-of-effective-altruism","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"\".)","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We want to break patterns of ","type":"text"},{"text":"pluralistic ignorance","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluralistic_ignorance","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" where people underrate how sceptical or uncertain others (including ‘experts’) are about some claim.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Finally, we want to frame this contest as one step towards generating high-quality criticism, and not the final one. For instance, we’re interested in following up with winning submissions, such as by meeting with winning entrants to discuss ways to translate your work into concrete changes and communicate your work to the relevant stakeholders.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"What this is ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"not","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" about","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Note that critical work is ","type":"text"},{"text":"not automatically valuable","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/07/22/is-it-better-to-be-more-positive/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" just by virtue of being critical: it can be attention-grabbing in a negative way. It can be stressful and time-consuming to engage with bad-faith or ill-considered criticism. We have a responsibility to be especially careful here.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This contest isn’t about making EA look open-minded or self-scrutinizing in a performative way: we want to award work that actually strikes us as useful, even if it isn’t likely to be especially popular or legible for a general audience.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We’re not going to privilege arguments for more caution about projects over arguments for urgency or haste. Scrutinizing projects in their early stages is a good way to avoid errors of ","type":"text"},{"text":"commission","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":"; but ","type":"text"},{"text":"errors of ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/cfdnJ3sDbCSkShiSZ/ea-and-the-current-funding-situation#Risks_of_omission__squandering_the_opportunity_","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"omission","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/cfdnJ3sDbCSkShiSZ/ea-and-the-current-funding-situation#Risks_of_omission__squandering_the_opportunity_","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" (","type":"text"},{"text":"not","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" going ahead with an ambitious project because of an unjustified amount of risk aversion, or oversensitivity to downsides over upsides) can be just as bad.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Similarly, we don’t want this initiative to only result in writing that one-directionally worries about EA ideas or projects being too ‘weird’ or too different from some consensus or intuitions. We’re just as interested to hear why some aspect of EA is being insufficiently weird — perhaps not taking certain ideas seriously enough. Relatedly, this isn’t just about being more epistemically modest: we are likely being both overconfident in some spots, ","type":"text"},{"text":"and","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":" overly modest in others. What matters is being well calibrated in our beliefs!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We would also caution against criticizing the actions or questioning the motivations of a specific individual, especially without first asking them. We urge you to focus on the ideas or ‘artefacts’ individuals produce, without speculating about personal motivations or character — this is rarely helpful.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Contact us","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Email ","type":"text"},{"text":"criticism-contest@effectivealtruism.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"mailto:criticism-contest@effectivealtruism.com","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", ","type":"text"},{"text":"message","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Y8gkABpa9R6ktkhYt/forum-user-manual#Messaging_other_users","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" any of the authors of this post via the Forum, or leave a comment on this post. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"text":"Q&A","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Submissions and how they’ll be judged","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Can I submit work I’ve already done?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" Yes, if it's recent. We’re accepting posts from the date of our ","type":"text"},{"text":"pre-announcement","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fx8pWSLKGwuqsfuRQ/pre-announcing-a-contest-for-critiques-and-red-teaming","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" (March 25, 2022) onwards.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Can I submit something that I got funding for already?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" Yes. ","type":"text"},{"text":"Let us know","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Contact_us","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" if you have specific concerns.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Can I refer another person’s work? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"Yes. And if that person’s work wins a prize (and the author didn’t submit it themselves, and you’re the first person to refer the work), we’ll also reward you with a commission (5% of the prize). We’d love to discover work from outside the EA community that could be relevant for effective altruism. Submit referrals ","type":"text"},{"text":"via this form","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forms.gle/ydNTFC9rivVeoXY46","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"What if I want to work on a large project for this contest that I can’t afford to carry out on my own time?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" ","type":"text"},{"text":"Contact us","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Contact_us","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". We can’t guarantee anything, but we’d like to help enable your work, by pointing you to ","type":"text"},{"text":"sources of funding","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/funding-opportunities","class":"TagHoverPreview-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" in effective altruism, and potentially arranging direct financial support where necessary. If we (the organizers of this contest) directly fund your work in advance, we’ll deduct whatever amount you received in advance from any potential prize that you win.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I have a complaint or criticism about an organization or individual, but it’s not something that’s appropriate to share publicly.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" You might consider contacting the ","type":"text"},{"text":"CEA Community Health Team","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/team#community-health-team","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", who can advise on the next steps, including acting as an intermediary. You can also ","type":"text"},{"text":"send them an anonymous message","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScJooJD0Sm2csCYgd0Is6FkpyQa3ket8IIcFzd_FcTRU7avRg/viewform","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Can I submit anonymously?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" Yes. You can ","type":"text"},{"text":"make an anonymous account on the Forum","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yND9aGJgobm5dEXqF/guide-to-norms-on-the-forum#Rules_for_pseudonymous_and_multiple_accounts","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", or you can ","type":"text"},{"text":"use this form","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forms.gle/BhxBJr2fQ5RKm4KP7","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" to submit without posting to the Forum.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Do I have to already be involved in effective altruism to submit something? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"No, not at all. We’re actively excited to bring in external ideas and expertise. If you’re new to the Forum, the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Wiki","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/all","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" could be a good place to start to check for what has already been written. You’re welcome to make broad criticisms of effective altruism, but focused critiques that draw on your area(s) of expertise could stand an especially good chance of being entirely novel.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I’d love to hear what [person who’s not engaged with effective altruism] would have to say about [some aspect of effective altruism]. How can I make that happen? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"If you know this person, we encourage you to reach out to them! If you’re unsure or uncomfortable about contacting them directly, ","type":"text"},{"text":"let us know","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Contact_us","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", and we can try getting in touch.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Some of the panellists belong to organizations I’d like to criticize. Isn’t that an issue? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"All our panellists are committed to evaluating your work on its own merit — being associated with an org or project you are criticizing should and will not count as a reason to downgrade your work. Panellists will recuse themselves if they (or we) feel that a conflict of interest will inhibit their ability to fairly evaluate a particular submission. If you’re still concerned about this or would like to request that specific panellists be recused, feel free to ","type":"text"},{"text":"contact us","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Contact_us","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"What counts as “EA”?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" We have in mind the ideas, institutions, projects, and communities associated with effective altruism. You can learn more at ","type":"text"},{"text":"effectivealtruism.org","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http://effectivealtruism.org","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" and here on the ","type":"text"},{"text":"Forum","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Does the criticism or red teaming have to come to the conclusion that the original work was wrong? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"No. We’re very happy to award prizes to work of the form: “I checked the arguments and sources in this text. In fact, they check out. Here are my notes.”","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Does my submission need to fulfill all the ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"criteria","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Criteria","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" outlined above?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" No. We understand that some formats make it difficult or impossible to satisfy all the requirements, and we don’t want that to be a barrier to submitting. At the same time, we do think each of the criteria are good indicators of the kind of work we’d like to see.","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"About the contest","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"How does this relate to Training for Good’s ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"‘Red Team challenge’","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DqBEwHqCdzMDeSBct/apply-for-red-team-challenge-may-7-june-4","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" The ","type":"text"},{"text":"Red Team Challenge","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.trainingforgood.com/red-teaming","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" is not this prize, and this prize is not the Red Team Challenge (RTC). The RTC is a program run by ","type":"text"},{"text":"Training for Good","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.trainingforgood.com/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" which provides training in red teaming best practices and then pairs small teams of 2-4 people together to critique a particular claim and publish the results. We are very excited about the results of the programme being submitted to this contest! So this contest is a complement to the Red Team Challenge, rather than a substitute. Training for Good may also collaborate with us on workshops and [other resources].","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Where’s the money coming from?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" The prizes will be awarded via the FTX Future Fund Regranting Program. The Centre for Effective Altruism is providing operational support (like coordination between judges). Note that the EA Forum is not sponsoring this prize, and isn't liable for it.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Doesn’t this penalize the people whose work is getting criticized? ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":"We want to encourage a norm where having your work fairly criticized ","type":"text"},{"text":"is great news","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2017/10/24/think-great-work-criticized-strangers-online/","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":": an indication that it was trying to answer an important question. We want to encourage a sense of criticism being part of the joint enterprise to figure out the right answers to important questions. However, we are aware that being criticized is not always enjoyable, and some criticism is made in bad faith. If you’re concerned about being the subject of bad-faith criticism, ","type":"text"},{"text":"let us know","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming#Contact_us","class":"PostLinkPreviewWithPost-link","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Does this mean that you think that non-critical work is less valuable than critical work?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" No. We just think that high-quality critical work is often under-rewarded and under-supplied — like many other kinds of non-critical work!","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":3},"content":[{"text":"Other","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I have another question that isn’t answered in this post.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" Leave a comment if you suspect others might have the same question, and we’ll try to answer it here. 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In honor of it finally happening in September, I have made a few markets about other aspects of the \"Ethereum Roadmap\" - the upgrades that Vitalik Buterin and others have proposed for the coming years.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This tweet outlines the major classes of upgrades remaining. For each of the remaining categories, I've included one or two markets about whether an upgrade from that category will make it onto mainnet by 2024.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"tiptapTweet","attrs":{"tweetId":"t1466411377107558402"}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"\"The Surge\": This category describes upgrades that are intended to increase the transaction throughput on Ethereum. I've included a market about whether this will double","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/the-surge-will-target-gas-per-block","height":0,"frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"\"The Verge\": This is more of a single-upgrade category, proposing a specific cryptographic accumulator scheme called \"Verkle trees\" to replace Merkle trees. I have a market about whether this scheme will be used in any capacity","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/will-ethereum-use-verkle-trees-by-t","height":0,"frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"\"The Purge\": This category is","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":" about upgrades that allow Ethereum nodes to forget long-untouched states of the blockchain, loosening up disk requirements. I have [a market](","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/the-purge-will-ethereum-implement-s","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/the-purge-will-ethereum-implement-s","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":") asking generically if nodes will be able to forget this state. Another aspect of this part of the roadmap is the idea of changing the SELFDESTRUCT opcode.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/the-purge-will-ethereum-implement-s","height":0,"frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/the-purge-will-ethereum-change-self","height":0,"frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"\"The Splurge\": This is something of a \"Miscellaneous\" category, with many somewhat unrelated upgrade proposals. I've included a market on the largest of these \"proposer-builder separation\", which seeks to help Ethereum remain decentralized by making the extraction of MEV independent of participation in consensus. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/the-splurge-will-ethereum-have-prop","height":0,"frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Another smaller splurge is the idea of using VDFs for randomness in leader selection.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"iframe","attrs":{"src":"https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/the-splurge-will-ethereum-use-vdfs","height":0,"frameborder":0,"allowfullscreen":true}},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"UPDATE: Vitalik has posted an updated roadmap!","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"tiptapTweet","attrs":{"tweetId":"t1588669782471368704"}}]},"creatorId":"uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2","createdTime":1665694933801,"totalMembers":27,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.03361315880502702},{"id":"9J2F9VYed8joQNK3ET0v","slug":"crossposts","name":"Crossposts","about":"","creatorId":"IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2","createdTime":1665701235575,"totalMembers":2,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.07078930620354609},{"id":"ctO6ymOBmSBA7qPoKR30","slug":"fc-academy","name":"FC Academy","about":"","creatorId":"IHrDvUSORwd6jKW0Q5II9umDhjJ2","createdTime":1665761531746,"totalMembers":2,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.02844534849908942},{"id":"KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6","slug":"gale-family","name":"Gale Family","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This is a group specifically created to house markets regarding the Gale Family. 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streamer","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destiny_(streamer)","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" and ","type":"text"},{"text":"destiny.gg","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http://destiny.gg","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" community.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Thanks to ","type":"text"},{"text":"MrGemzar","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://twitter.com/mrGemzar/","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" for letting us use his art as a header image.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"Subs","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"We can now redeem 1000 mana for a DGG Tier 1 subscription on ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://manifold.markets/destinygg","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/destinygg","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"General advice","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The website is made for classic bets. “Stocks” are messier, but they mostly work OK. ","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sort the markets by “newest”, “closing soon” etc. to scoop interesting deals.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Filter out terms in the search by using the minus sign, e.g. ","type":"text"},{"text":"-permanent","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"code"}]}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Use limit orders to target a specific probability range.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"It’s a general-purpose platform, our community is one of many playing here. You may find questions that interest you in other public groups too.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"More advice has been posted below in the official “","type":"text"},{"text":"Welcome explanation for newcomers from Destinygg!","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/post/welcome-explanation-for-newcomers-f","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"”","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"When creating new DGG markets","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Be sure to add to the “Destiny.gg” group for discoverability, and as a courtesy for non-DGG users for whom this is alien stuff and who have this group hidden.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Peek at DGG Void’s quick advice on wording a bet well","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/post/creating-a-community-of-good-market-c167310281ae","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Descriptions, images, and clear criteria help your market stand out.","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For “stock” markets, there are talks on pitfalls and possible improvements on how they operate, e.g. “","type":"text"},{"text":"How to make orbiter stocks better.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/post/how-to-make-orbiter-stocks-better","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"”","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"The website rules are very permissive for now, we’ll keep an eye out if anything changes affecting us (cf. ","type":"text"},{"text":"community guidelines","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://help.manifold.markets/community-guidelines","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", ","type":"text"},{"text":"best practices when creating markets","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://help.manifold.markets/f18dc395fee84c4498dd199bf7028e4c","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":").","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"text":"Related Groups","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Destiny.gg Stocks","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/group/destinygg-stocks","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":". ","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Initial discussions and comments on the subreddit: ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/y850pq/heres_how_to_trade_orbiter_stocks_a_prediction/","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/y850pq/heres_how_to_trade_orbiter_stocks_a_prediction/","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":", ","type":"text"},{"text":"https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/ydqi84/creating_the_orbiter_stock_market/","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/ydqi84/creating_the_orbiter_stock_market/","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":".","type":"text"}]}]},"creatorId":"ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2","createdTime":1666180830075,"totalMembers":12930,"bannerUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fyaboi69%2FRxpYQxnukY.jpg?alt=media&token=b7577410-5687-4226-ba64-a0213aff5118","privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.033651575540921304},{"id":"F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7","slug":"food","name":"🍝 Food","about":"","creatorId":"LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1","createdTime":1666189735767,"totalMembers":52,"privacyStatus":"public","importanceScore":0.1627199698935623},{"id":"ZdpeoTRZA7KdssfAVvFI","slug":"araes-college-applications","name":"arae's College Applications","about":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I'm applying to college this year and creating some markets on it for fun. 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At any time you may create a market","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"titled \"[UILG1] \" followed by your word or by some statement about the rule","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"in this group","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"unlisted","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"with any close time","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"@-mentioning me in ","type":"text"},{"text":"the description","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strike"}]},{"text":" a comment (","type":"text"},{"text":"bug report","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldBugs/i-do-not-get-notifications-from-men","class":"no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":")","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"After the market closes I will say how your market should resolve according to my rule.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Sometimes I will also make my own markets. 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