{"id":"05UEBtXTRHW934AiAtgU","creatorId":"fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2","creatorUsername":"LarsDoucet","creatorName":"Lars Doucet","createdTime":1697411859765,"creatorAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c","closeTime":1893477540000,"question":"Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?","slug":"will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover","url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover","pool":{"NO":1325.7978114641992,"YES":1681.197624452643},"probability":0.5935397210313911,"p":0.6493332989986714,"totalLiquidity":1660,"outcomeType":"BINARY","mechanism":"cpmm-1","volume":15168.278757852164,"volume24Hours":0,"isResolved":false,"uniqueBettorCount":53,"lastUpdatedTime":1766763329380,"lastBetTime":1766763329380,"lastCommentTime":1721436011213,"token":"MANA","description":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This market resolves YES, if, as a direct result of the Vesuvius Challenge, and all downstream discovery/actitivities, a work is discovered and recovered that fulfills these criteria:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1) It is determined to be authentic","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2) At least 90% of its textual content is confirmed legibly recovered","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"3) The work in question was known to us to have existed, but we don't currently have more than 10% of it","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"An example of a known lost work is Claudius' history of the Etruscans:","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrrhenika","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrrhenika","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If not a single such work is recovered by 2030, this market resolves NO.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"EDIT: see comments. Has to be at least 1,000 words long in its complete form and see comments for complete works found within documents that are multi-work collections that are themselves incomplete","type":"text"}]}]},"groupSlugs":["vesuvius-challenge","archaeology"],"textDescription":"This market resolves YES, if, as a direct result of the Vesuvius Challenge, and all downstream discovery/actitivities, a work is discovered and recovered that fulfills these criteria:\n\n1) It is determined to be authentic\n\n2) At least 90% of its textual content is confirmed legibly recovered\n\n3) The work in question was known to us to have existed, but we don't currently have more than 10% of it\n\nAn example of a known lost work is Claudius' history of the Etruscans:\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrrhenika\n\nIf not a single such work is recovered by 2030, this market resolves NO.\n\nEDIT: see comments. Has to be at least 1,000 words long in its complete form and see comments for complete works found within documents that are multi-work collections that are themselves incomplete"}