{"id":"iuBCRicRjrIzUshZxq97","creatorId":"uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2","creatorUsername":"BoltonBailey","creatorName":"Bolton Bailey","createdTime":1689210180869,"creatorAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBoltonBailey%2F5SIRyz6A5Q.png?alt=media&token=a8b0fcdc-a17c-41ca-b8e3-a5b2f963d345","closeTime":2240553600000,"question":"Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?","slug":"will-any-fusion-reactor-project-dem-9695cf9c60e0","url":"https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-any-fusion-reactor-project-dem-9695cf9c60e0","pool":{"NO":2207.756669049584,"YES":674.731155320848},"probability":0.8710319010216452,"p":0.673640191684449,"totalLiquidity":1000,"outcomeType":"BINARY","mechanism":"cpmm-1","volume":14379.769184144036,"volume24Hours":0,"isResolved":false,"uniqueBettorCount":56,"lastUpdatedTime":1750299378027,"lastBetTime":1750299378027,"lastCommentTime":1692478456923,"token":"MANA","description":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Some people are optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been \"soon\" many times in the past.","type":"text"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"type":"hardBreak"},{"text":"Engineering breakeven means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in ","type":"text"},{"text":"this","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":" wiki article.","type":"text"}]}]},"groupSlugs":["fusion-energy","nuclear"],"textDescription":"Some people are optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been \"soon\" many times in the past.\n\nEngineering breakeven means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article."}