{"id":"dds5CqP26u","creatorId":"bLUS3zHDmNPmQS01LdiTvo8l6I43","creatorUsername":"Jasonb","creatorName":"Jason 🫘","createdTime":1759244589874,"creatorAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJasonb%2FNCysgAZCqt.jpg?alt=media&token=42348998-e384-4a6d-b19f-7c57b08129b2","closeTime":1760353200000,"question":"AI Safety Research Futarchy: Goal Crystallisation","slug":"ai-safety-research-futarchy-goal-cr","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/ai-safety-research-futarchy-goal-cr","totalLiquidity":1000,"outcomeType":"MULTIPLE_CHOICE","mechanism":"cpmm-multi-1","volume":1069.0737478931164,"volume24Hours":0,"isResolved":false,"uniqueBettorCount":14,"lastUpdatedTime":1760612679929,"lastBetTime":1760000583283,"lastCommentTime":1760612679911,"token":"MANA","shouldAnswersSumToOne":false,"addAnswersMode":"DISABLED","answers":[{"id":"Zh660htP6h","index":0,"contractId":"dds5CqP26u","userId":"bLUS3zHDmNPmQS01LdiTvo8l6I43","text":"A LessWrong post is produced within 6 months and gains 50 upvotes or more within a month of posting.","createdTime":1759244589875,"totalLiquidity":200.00000000000003,"subsidyPool":0,"isOther":false,"resolution":"NO","resolutionTime":1782115833823,"resolutionProbability":0.5448999249150018,"resolverId":"bLUS3zHDmNPmQS01LdiTvo8l6I43","probChanges":{"day":0,"week":0,"month":0},"volume":310.1360738118275,"pool":{"YES":182.7784858223105,"NO":218.84413704404105},"probability":0},{"id":"QdcpyE8EQq","index":1,"contractId":"dds5CqP26u","userId":"bLUS3zHDmNPmQS01LdiTvo8l6I43","text":"If a LessWrong post is produced, it gains 150 upvotes or more within a month of posting.","createdTime":1759244589875,"totalLiquidity":200.00000000000003,"subsidyPool":0,"isOther":false,"resolution":"CANCEL","resolutionTime":1782115834987,"resolutionProbability":0.3284034273858197,"resolverId":"bLUS3zHDmNPmQS01LdiTvo8l6I43","probChanges":{"day":0,"week":0,"month":0},"volume":248.00000000000003,"pool":{"YES":286.00945520036015,"NO":139.85551621703752},"probability":0.3284034273858197},{"id":"6p828NR22Q","index":2,"contractId":"dds5CqP26u","userId":"bLUS3zHDmNPmQS01LdiTvo8l6I43","text":"A paper is produced and uploaded to arXiv within 9 months.","createdTime":1759244589875,"totalLiquidity":200.00000000000003,"subsidyPool":0,"isOther":false,"probChanges":{"day":0,"week":0,"month":0},"volume":186.1371380486072,"pool":{"YES":117.33307357803504,"NO":340.90984562334086},"probability":0.7439500564841838},{"id":"CPNyIlQuEN","index":3,"contractId":"dds5CqP26u","userId":"bLUS3zHDmNPmQS01LdiTvo8l6I43","text":"If a paper is produced, it is accepted to a top ML conference (ICLR, ICML, or NeurIPS) within 6 months of being uploaded to arXiv.","createdTime":1759244589875,"totalLiquidity":200.00000000000003,"subsidyPool":0,"isOther":false,"probChanges":{"day":0,"week":0,"month":0},"volume":86,"pool":{"YES":286,"NO":139.8601398601399},"probability":0.3284180104436928},{"id":"tpPyzRhRnt","index":4,"contractId":"dds5CqP26u","userId":"bLUS3zHDmNPmQS01LdiTvo8l6I43","text":"If a paper is produced, it receives 10 citations or more within one year of being uploaded to arXiv.","createdTime":1759244589875,"totalLiquidity":200.00000000000003,"subsidyPool":0,"isOther":false,"probChanges":{"day":0,"week":0,"month":0},"volume":238.80053603268183,"pool":{"YES":392.85853329305434,"NO":101.81782145524093},"probability":0.20582714430943158}],"description":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If chosen, how successful will the research project \"Goal Crystallisation\" be?","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Project summary: Investigating whether AI models that fake alignment ","type":"text"},{"text":"perfectly ","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}]},{"text":"during training retain their original goals or have them changed despite following through with deceptive alignment.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Detailed project overview.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VXV_xsiahvvCEa1KDP0-hVoiIgaMnqZv3J_m4IzPGhQ/edit?tab=t.nvhxgblo3esg","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Clarifications:","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Unless otherwise stated, timeframes are given from when the research begins, i.e. the start of the MARS program, 1st December 2025","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Updates to posts and papers will be considered the same entity as the original for purposes of outcome resolution (i.e. If a paper is produced and uploaded to arXiv within 9 months, but it is edited after this before being accepted at a conference, (4) still resolves YES)","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Some outcomes are conditional on others as follows: outcome (2) will resolve N/A if (1) resolves NO, outcomes (4)-(6) will resolve N/A if (3) resolves NO","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"All outcomes are conditioned on the project being selected and will resolve N/A if it is not (see main post below)","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Provisionally, market will close and decisions will be made on Monday the 12th of October","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"For more details on AI Safety Research Futarchy, ","type":"text"},{"text":"see here.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://manifold.markets/post/ai-safety-research-futarchy-using-p","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Update 2025-10-16 (PST) (AI summary of ","type":"text"},{"text":"creator comment","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"/Jasonb/ai-safety-research-futarchy-goal-cr#l78615j723","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"): ","type":"text"},{"text":"The project has been chosen.","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" The market will remain ","type":"text"},{"text":"locked","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" and the relevant metrics will resolve when possible.","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},"groupSlugs":["ai","fun","technology-default","ai-safety","futarchy"],"textDescription":"If chosen, how successful will the research project \"Goal Crystallisation\" be?\n\nProject summary: Investigating whether AI models that fake alignment perfectly during training retain their original goals or have them changed despite following through with deceptive alignment.\n\nDetailed project overview.\n\nClarifications:\n\nUnless otherwise stated, timeframes are given from when the research begins, i.e. the start of the MARS program, 1st December 2025\n\nUpdates to posts and papers will be considered the same entity as the original for purposes of outcome resolution (i.e. If a paper is produced and uploaded to arXiv within 9 months, but it is edited after this before being accepted at a conference, (4) still resolves YES)\n\nSome outcomes are conditional on others as follows: outcome (2) will resolve N/A if (1) resolves NO, outcomes (4)-(6) will resolve N/A if (3) resolves NO\n\nAll outcomes are conditioned on the project being selected and will resolve N/A if it is not (see main post below)\n\nProvisionally, market will close and decisions will be made on Monday the 12th of October\n\nFor more details on AI Safety Research Futarchy, see here.\n\nUpdate 2025-10-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The project has been chosen. The market will remain locked and the relevant metrics will resolve when possible."}