{"id":"cz2gzllLy0","creatorId":"MFFXxDFFEcQmeX9fwDdxsX9XVIS2","creatorUsername":"MikhailTal","creatorName":"Mikhail Tal","createdTime":1755085096944,"creatorAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKBpVVG3fbJS1zFxSqPwUv0-Fnruj3Yd0tgj5-ypVk9km-W=s96-c","closeTime":1767225540000,"question":"South African 2025 Rhodium supply estimate to exceed 561 koz?","slug":"south-african-2025-rhodium-supply-e","url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/south-african-2025-rhodium-supply-e","pool":{"NO":7430.735863025117,"YES":13457.617367023198},"probability":0.3557358390672871,"p":0.4999999999999999,"totalLiquidity":10000,"outcomeType":"BINARY","mechanism":"cpmm-1","volume":8041.937275121162,"volume24Hours":0,"isResolved":true,"resolution":"NO","resolutionTime":1773072234338,"resolutionProbability":0.3557358390672872,"resolverId":"MFFXxDFFEcQmeX9fwDdxsX9XVIS2","uniqueBettorCount":15,"lastUpdatedTime":1767225540000,"lastBetTime":1767161369861,"lastCommentTime":1773072229463,"token":"MANA","description":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Johnson Mathey typically issues a revised 2025 estimate in their November PGM report. This market will close on the first of November and resolve when the report is issued.  If the revised 2025 estimate for primary production of rhodium in south africa (only) exceeds 561 koz this market will resolve YES. If there is no report issued in 2025, the market will resolve N/A. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":4},"content":[{"text":"Resolution criteria","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Resolve YES if Johnson Matthey’s first PGM Market publication released on or after November 1, 2025 reports South Africa’s 2025 primary rhodium supply strictly greater than 561,000 oz in the “Rhodium supply and demand – Troy ounces” table. If the reported value is 561,000 oz or lower, resolve NO. Cite the report page showing the “South Africa” row. (","type":"text"},{"text":"matthey.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://matthey.com/en/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-markets/pgm-market-reports","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":")","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If no such JM update is published by December 31, 2025, resolve N/A.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Source location: the PGM Market Reports index (new reports appear here) and the May 2025 report PDF (rhodium tables on pp. 27–28). (","type":"text"},{"text":"matthey.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://matthey.com/en/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-markets/pgm-market-reports","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":")","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":4},"content":[{"text":"Background","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"As of the May 2025 report, JM estimates South Africa’s 2025 primary rhodium supply at 561 koz (17.4 tonnes), with 2024 at 586 koz. (","type":"text"},{"text":"matthey.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://matthey.com/documents/161599/509428/PGM_Market_Report_25.pdf/5f4e4078-8e9a-3c96-d334-9d14da9de094?t=1747663939434","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":")","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"JM defines “primary supply” as sales of primary PGM by producers, allocated to the region where mining took place. This matches “South Africa (only)” in the table. (","type":"text"},{"text":"matthey.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://matthey.com/documents/161599/509428/PGM_Market_Report_25.pdf/5f4e4078-8e9a-3c96-d334-9d14da9de094?t=1747663939434","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":")","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":4},"content":[{"text":"Considerations","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Johnson Matthey now states the PGM Market Report is published annually in May; a separate November “interim” update is not guaranteed. Hence the possibility of N/A. (","type":"text"},{"text":"matthey.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://matthey.com/en/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-markets/pgm-market-reports","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":")","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If JM publishes only the tonnes table, use the same row (“South Africa”) there; thresholds are consistent with 561 koz ≈ 17.4 t. (","type":"text"},{"text":"matthey.com","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http://matthey.com","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":")","type":"text"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Monitoring","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Programmatic participation is encouraged. ","type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/south-african-2025-rhodium-supply-e","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/south-african-2025-rhodium-supply-e","class":"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400","target":"_blank"}}]}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of ","type":"text"},{"text":"creator comment","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"/MikhailTal/south-african-2025-rhodium-supply-e#kjwr6b59i7","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"): The creator is preparing to resolve this market ","type":"text"},{"text":"NO","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":", based on no Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report matching the resolution criteria being found after November 1, 2025.","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},"groupSlugs":["south-africa","mining","metals","economics-default","global-macro"],"textDescription":"Johnson Mathey typically issues a revised 2025 estimate in their November PGM report. This market will close on the first of November and resolve when the report is issued.  If the revised 2025 estimate for primary production of rhodium in south africa (only) exceeds 561 koz this market will resolve YES. If there is no report issued in 2025, the market will resolve N/A. \n\nResolution criteria\n\nResolve YES if Johnson Matthey’s first PGM Market publication released on or after November 1, 2025 reports South Africa’s 2025 primary rhodium supply strictly greater than 561,000 oz in the “Rhodium supply and demand – Troy ounces” table. If the reported value is 561,000 oz or lower, resolve NO. Cite the report page showing the “South Africa” row. (matthey.com)\n\nIf no such JM update is published by December 31, 2025, resolve N/A.\n\nSource location: the PGM Market Reports index (new reports appear here) and the May 2025 report PDF (rhodium tables on pp. 27–28). (matthey.com)\n\nBackground\n\nAs of the May 2025 report, JM estimates South Africa’s 2025 primary rhodium supply at 561 koz (17.4 tonnes), with 2024 at 586 koz. (matthey.com)\n\nJM defines “primary supply” as sales of primary PGM by producers, allocated to the region where mining took place. This matches “South Africa (only)” in the table. (matthey.com)\n\nConsiderations\n\nJohnson Matthey now states the PGM Market Report is published annually in May; a separate November “interim” update is not guaranteed. Hence the possibility of N/A. (matthey.com)\n\nIf JM publishes only the tonnes table, use the same row (“South Africa”) there; thresholds are consistent with 561 koz ≈ 17.4 t. (matthey.com)\n\nMonitoring\n\nProgrammatic participation is encouraged. \n\nhttps://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/south-african-2025-rhodium-supply-e\n\nUpdate 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is preparing to resolve this market NO, based on no Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report matching the resolution criteria being found after November 1, 2025."}