{"id":"nU05ORyZ9Z","creatorId":"r156R5nBLuPmOseMCikftrmGKvD3","creatorUsername":"a_l_e_x","creatorName":"Alex","createdTime":1792941099935,"creatorAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fa_l_e_x%2FtPAI8Z2U29.jpg?alt=media&token=2327e3a1-02a4-461e-b986-19136035e0e0","closeTime":1798644360000,"question":"Will an AI agent cause a plane crash in 2026?","slug":"will-an-ai-agent-cause-a-plane-cras","url":"https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-an-ai-agent-cause-a-plane-cras","pool":{"NO":458.73884092014094,"YES":6161.415117633618},"probability":0.030921959726245653,"p":0.3000000000000006,"totalLiquidity":1000,"outcomeType":"BINARY","mechanism":"cpmm-1","volume":5633.84779221218,"volume24Hours":1922.9999999999989,"isResolved":false,"uniqueBettorCount":33,"lastUpdatedTime":1793048548947,"lastBetTime":1793048548947,"lastCommentTime":1793023534193,"token":"MANA","description":{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Resolution criteria","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This market will resolve YES if an AI agent, or a group of AI agents, is responsible for an aeroplane crash or collision causing at least one fatality in 2026.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"This market will otherwise resolve NO.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Clarifications","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"If agentic AI is suspected of causing a plane crash in 2026, this market may remain open until the cause is conclusively determined. Otherwise, this market will resolve at the end of 2026.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Update 2026-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of ","type":"text"},{"text":"creator comment","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"/a_l_e_x/will-an-ai-agent-cause-a-plane-cras#o8bv7cuy46l","class":null,"target":"_blank"}}]},{"text":"): - ","type":"text"},{"text":"Drones","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" do not count as planes.","type":"text"}]}]}]}]},"groupSlugs":["ai","technology-default","ai-impacts","aviation","ai-safety"],"textDescription":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve YES if an AI agent, or a group of AI agents, is responsible for an aeroplane crash or collision causing at least one fatality in 2026.\n\nThis market will otherwise resolve NO.\n\nClarifications\n\nIf agentic AI is suspected of causing a plane crash in 2026, this market may remain open until the cause is conclusively determined. Otherwise, this market will resolve at the end of 2026.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Drones do not count as planes."}